Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled TimeOxford University Press, 2007年1月4日 - 368 頁 With Beyond Rationality, Kenneth R. Hammond, one of the most respected and experienced experts in judgment and decision-making, sums up his life's work and persuasively argues that decisions should be based on balance and pragmatism rather than rigid ideologies. Hammond has long focused on the dichotomy between theories of correspondence, whereby arguments correspond with reality, and coherence, whereby arguments strive to be internally consistent. He has persistently proposed a middle approach that draws from both of these modes of thought and so avoids the blunders of either extreme. In this volume, Hammond shows how particular ways of thinking that are common in the political process have led to the mistaken judgments that created our current political crisis. He illustrates this argument by analyzing penetrating case studies emphasizing the political consequences that arise when decision makers consciously or unconsciously ignore their adversaries' particular mode of thought. These analyses range from why Kennedy and Khruschev misunderstood each other to why Colin Powell erred in his judgments over the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. For anyone concerned about the current state of politics in the U.S. and where it will lead us, Beyond Rationality is required reading. |
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第 6 到 10 筆結果,共 85 筆
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... important to realize that this progress was not a foregone conclusion. Philosophers have done important work on this topic for centuries, but the shift from intellectual analysis to empirical study is a profound one. The interested ...
... important to realize that this progress was not a foregone conclusion. Philosophers have done important work on this topic for centuries, but the shift from intellectual analysis to empirical study is a profound one. The interested ...
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... importance,” and he entered a new phase of life in which “the cultivation of the feelings became one of the cardinal ... important decisions came “straight from the gut.” George W. Bush, president of the world's most powerful nation ...
... importance,” and he entered a new phase of life in which “the cultivation of the feelings became one of the cardinal ... important decisions came “straight from the gut.” George W. Bush, president of the world's most powerful nation ...
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... important topics related to that process: the role of emotions, explication of the philosophical aspects of the process, and references to politics. Emotions: I do not apologize for omitting discussion of the role of emotions in ...
... important topics related to that process: the role of emotions, explication of the philosophical aspects of the process, and references to politics. Emotions: I do not apologize for omitting discussion of the role of emotions in ...
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... important that it be recognized in the field of judgment and decision making. This field urgently needs a theory of tasks in the environment and a theory of cognitive systems—what I refer to as “ecological psychology.” And psychologists ...
... important that it be recognized in the field of judgment and decision making. This field urgently needs a theory of tasks in the environment and a theory of cognitive systems—what I refer to as “ecological psychology.” And psychologists ...
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... important role in relation to social policy. In developing environment protection policy, for example, there is considerable uncertainty about the future of any ecology (the species and the environment that supports them). Therefore ...
... important role in relation to social policy. In developing environment protection policy, for example, there is considerable uncertainty about the future of any ecology (the species and the environment that supports them). Therefore ...
內容
Strategies of Human Judgment | |
The Strategy of Seeking Correspondence Competence | |
The MisJudgments of Colin Powell | |
Trying to Be Rational | |
Seeking Empirical Accuracy the Hard | |
Seeking Rationality the Easy | |
Seeking Rationality the Hard | |
Embedded in an Uncertain World | |
Current Research Themes | |
The Authors Theme | |
Trying to Learn from History with Bernard Lewis and Jared | |
Toward Better Practices | |
Seekingand Failingto Learn about the Other | |
How the Drive for Coherence Brings Down Utopias | |
Tactics of Human Judgment | |
Continua | |
The Cognitive Continuum at the Supreme Court | |
Seeking Empirical Accuracy the Easy | |
Ineptitude and the Tools of | |
The New Search for Wisdom | |
Notes | |
Bibliography | |
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analytical cognition answer Atul Gawande behavior believe bounded rationality Brunswik Cass Sunstein chapter cognitive activity cognitive continuum cognitive processes coherence competence coherence strategy Colin Powell common sense concept correspondence competence correspondence strategy critical Daniel Kahneman data mining demand described Diamond economists Egon Brunswik empirical environment example explain fact false negatives feedback Gerd Gigerenzer Hammond Holmes human judgment Ibid idea important inferences intelligence intentions intuition and analysis Iraq irreducible uncertainty Isaiah Berlin Jared Diamond judgment and decision Judgment and Social Justice Kahneman Kennedy Kenneth Khrushchev Lewis’s logic Manhattan Project mathematical method military multiple fallible indicators natural Oliver Wendell Holmes one’s organization Oxford University Press person political Powell Powell’s president problem psychologists question reader reason result Saddam Hussein Scalia sexual selection Simon Social Policy society Sunstein tactics task terrorist theme theory twentyfirst century wisdom wrong York