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The Outlook

NOVEMBER 29, 1916

Offices, 381 Fourth Avenue, New York

THE STORY OF THE WAR:
THE FALL OF MONASTIR

The war history for our week (November 15-22) may almost be summed up in two words, Monastir and Craiova. Each stands for a great achievement and for long-reaching consequences in the progress of the war in the Balkan region.

In the capture of Monastir the Servian army, once crushed by the Teutonic forces, now reorganized and again in splendid fighting order, though in all probability smaller than it was, must feel exultant. Aided by their French allies and by a detached Russian force, the Servians again occupy one of the most important cities of their country. In the whole campaign which has resulted in the capture of Monastir the Bulgarians have been outmaneuveredand outfought. Their retreat from Monastir (so the Allies' despatches say) was little less than a rout. Strategically the gain is a large one. Despite the fact that the rail way on which Monastir is situated ends at that place, its occupation opens up, through the valley of the Cerna River, a road toward Nish, to capture which must be the great effort of the Allies' armies on the Salonika front.

The direct approach to Nish is of course northward from Salonika, through the valley of the Vardar River, and by the railway running through that valley. The present situation is that the left wing (or western force) of General Sarrail's total army is now well advanced and in good position; and if the right wing, in which the British predominate, is once placed in a good position to the eastward, the long-expected main advance of the center of this vast army made up of several nationalities may begin to move toward Nish. The capture of Nish would cut in two the only rail communication between Teutonic forces in the north and their allies, Bulgaria and Turkey, in the southeast.

When that great drive will come it is impossible to say. Those who impatiently demand why General Sarrail does not come to the rescue of the Rumanians hardly take into account the two obstacles which will

make this a slow process: First, the distance and natural obstacles involved in the campaign; and, secondly, the unsatisfactory state of things in Greece. That the leaders of the Allies in Greece have come to the end of their patience with the tortuous and treacherous conduct of the Greek King became evident last week, when sweeping demands were made upon the nominal Greek Government, first, for the surrender to the Allies of a large portion of the army's munitions and artillery of the Greek army; and, secondly, for the immediate departure of the diplomatic representatives of Germany, Austria, Bulgaria, and Turkey now in Greece. The first step is justified by the treachery of the Greek army to Greece in its failure to resist Bulgarian invasion; the second, by the plotting and intrigues of the Ministers of the Central Powers. Meanwhile, the Greek people are likely to turn more and more to Venizelos, the head of the Nationalist Government, who has just issued a proclamation calling upon the people to wipe out the stain placed upon Greece by the disregard of its treaty obligations to Servia and by the tame submission to invasion by Bulgaria.

CRAIOVA AND RUMANIA

The second great event of the week above noted was the capture by General von Falkenhayn's army of the Rumanian town of Craiova. This is not an important place in itself, but its occupation has tremendous significance. It lies on a railway running in its general direction from west to east through western Rumania. As the German forces under Falkenhayn have pushed the Rumanians south out of Transylvania, through the passes, and back into Rumania, the left or west wing of the Rumanian army has held Orsova. Now the only rail communication between Orsova and Bucharest is by this railway which passes through Craiova.' The occupation by the Germans of the latter place seems to cut off the Rumanian army at Orsova from its base of supplies. The Rumanians there are facing attack from two

directions, or, as some say, from three directions, and their position is perilous in the

extreme.

But this is not the only way in which the capture of Craiova threatens Rumania. This same railway runs from Craiova east and northeast until it joins another railway running in a southerly direction to Bucharest from Kampulung, where the Rumanians have been carrying on a strong resistance to the Germans, aided materially by Russian forces. If the German forces at Craiova follow the first railway to Pitesci, the junction of the two roads, the Rumanians at Kampulung may be caught between two armies. Altogether, the outlook for Rumania is a bad one, and her capital, Bucharest, is in serious danger.

The offset to the prediction of disaster we have just recorded lies in the question whether Falkenhayn has sufficient forces or can get them from Germany and Austria to carry out such large plans involving movements in different directions. If he can, and there is real uncertainty as to this, he has a good prospect of capturing Bucharest and joining his forces with those of General von Mackensen in the Dobrudja.

On the other war fronts little of note took place during the week.

THE GERMAN DEPORTATION
OF BELGIANS

The atrocious deportation of Belgians by Germany continues. Beyond question it constitutes industrial enslavement and expatriation on a large scale. One report of the deportation in six villages in the district of Mons says that twelve hundred men, the cream of the industrial workers, were taken from these places alone. The well-known Belgian writer, Émile Cammaerts, commenting on the acts of deportation, calls them slave raids." and says, "Trains roll through Germany packed with human cattle," and adds:

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These things have been going on since October 15. Ten days ago fifteen thousand had been taken in Flanders alone. How many are there now? Between twenty and thirty thousand. If things are allowed to go on at this rate, we shall witness the wholesale deportation of an entire people reduced to slavery.

This, indeed, is a disaster worse than invasion, worse than the retreat from Antwerp, worse than the wholesale massacres of Louvain,

es, Andenne, Dinant-worse even than seless persecutions of the last two years.

What is Belgium's answer to this new crime? To-day her soul is stricken. Every one of these captives has to choose between death and dishonor. Their spirit is broken by the slow, gnawing torture endured in complete isolation.

WASTE PREVENTION IN

GREAT BRITAIN AND FRANCE

The proposal in Great Britain to appoint a controller of food and to regulate food supplies and prices is not a confession of weakness, but the evidence of strength.

Germany acted wisely when, long ago, under the pressure of the food question she instituted thorough Government supervision and regulation. As with Germany, so with England; the action was at first taken to indicate a greater extremity than actually existed. It was wise because under war conditions food should be controlled so as to prevent speculation and to secure as far as possible an even distribution of the burden which necessarily results in war time from any interference with natural food supply and sale.

The same thing is true of the measures for economy and restriction of extravagance which have been taken in France. Scientific and sensible control in such matters is far preferable to the chaos and unfair pressure upon the poorer classes which would result from maintaining in war time normal, peacetime liberty.

FRANCIS JOSEPH

The Austrian Emperor, Francis Joseph, has just died, at the age of eighty-six. The year before he ascended the throne Austria had been severely shaken by the revolutionary wave which swept throughout Europe. For Austria's policy at home and abroad had been guided by Metternich, doubtless the most influential reactionary in Europe. Thus the Austrian ship of state, under its youthful pilot, entered immediately upon stormy seas both as to its domestic and as to its foreign policies.

As to domestic policy, his Ministers advised Francis Joseph to suppress the Hungarian democratic and revolutionary movement without mercy. He did so. A mere boy, the responsibility lay with his absolutist Ministers rather than with himself. But his dreadful deed taught him to be more tolerant of national ideals and to try to bring about cohesion with seeming respect for autonomy. He exhibited this particularly in his relations

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with the Poles, even though his was the narrow idea of a benevolent autocracy imposed from above rather than the recognition of the progress of a freely developing people. Despite this limitation, however, we would call attention to the difference in the condition of Austrian Poland and that of Prussian or Russian Poland. In Prussian Poland a child is actually afraid to say its prayers in Polish because of the forced Germanization of the country, and we all know how ruthlessly Russian Poland has been Russianized. But in Austrian Poland a child may begin its education in a Polish kindergarten, continue through Polish grammar and high school and graduate at a Polish university.

Austria's relation to Bosnia has been like her relation to Poland. However much one may condemn the annexation of Bosnia to Austria, as transcending the Treaty of Berlin (which merely assigned the province to Austrian military protection), we have to admit that nowhere was there greater advance than during the generation between the Treaty of Berlin (1878) and the Austrian annexation Nowadays Bosnia actually enjoys self-government. The franchise is universal and direct. Schools have been established, roads built, telegraphs erected. The courts award justice. In a country where once women never appeared alone in public and where brigandage was a recognized profession, human life and honor, it is claimed, are now as safe as in America.

As to foreign policy Francis Joseph's reign has been distinctly disappointing. His Ministers actually urged European Powers to forbid the unification of Italy! No wonder that Italy drove Austria out of the Italian peninsula after this.

We all know the history of the past two years; how the excuse of the assassination of the heir apparent at Sarajevo by a Servian affected the Emperor enough to make him precipitate a war even though Servia had offered to yield to almost all of his demands and to submit the rest to the arbitration of the Hague Court, and even though he must have known that a declaration of war on Servia would bring about a European conflagration.

The dead Emperor has been succeeded by his grandnephew, the Archduke Charles Francis Joseph. It is too soon to tell what will be the result of this transition from a very old to a very young ruler of an Empire which is already torn by serious racial controversies. The late Emperor's rule was

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His hold on the

largely a personal one. people, apart from any political influence, is illustrated by his course at a time of serious rioting in Vienna. He refused to order out the troops. I know my Viennese better," He sent a military orchestra instead, and the riot finally broke up in gayety.

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THE DISMISSAL OF SIR SAM HUGHES

The Canadian Government, through the dismissal of Sir Sam Hughes, Minister of Militia, by Premier Borden, has lost a picturesque part of its machinery, but perhaps the Canadian Government will find that its machinery moves more smoothly without its energetic and pugnacious Minister of Militia.

Some months ago Sir Sam Hughes, who won golden opinions for himself by his energy and skill in organizing the expeditionary forces of Canada, was severely criticised for his laxity in the handling of the moneys devoted to the purchase of munitions. The charges that were brought against him, though not sufficient to secure his removal from the Government at that time, nevertheless clouded his record sufficiently to afford an opening for his political opponents. charges against him were a heavy load for the Conservative party to carry, and the Liberals believed that his continuance as a member of the Government would insure a popular demand for a change at the next Dominion election. The fact that the Conservatives realized this was a powerful factor in securing the dismissal of Hughes by the Premier.

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Another factor in increasing the hostility to Sir Sam was that he was too much inclined to regard his department as a sort of separate government. He was responsible for many acts which should not have been done without first being passed upon by the Government of which he was only a part.

There was one position which Sir Sam took which found, however, ready sympathy in Canada. There has been a tendency in Great Britain to consider the Canadian soldiers as an integral part of the British army and absolutely under the control of the British Government. Sir Sam Hughes took the ground that the control of them by the Canadian Government did not cease after they reached England. Several weeks ago he stirred up no small hornets' nest when he directed that Canadian soldiers should be sent

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