T

HE active and vital half of

the Presidential campaign finds American politics in a situation that is without precedent-a situation in which the major issue is not between the two candidates who might conceivably win, but between both of them on the one hand, and on the other a man who has no hope of winning, but merely of making trouble. As the campaign goes on, the success of the last-named hope increases rapidly, and it is already so great that politicians agree that it will determine the results of the election. Davis and Coolidge must look for their own success to the decision of the voters as to which will be most certain to beat La Follette and his schemes.

La Follette has been accused of delighting in being a trouble-maker. If that is true, he must be a very happy man. There is no belief whatever that he may win the election-unless it be among some of his own followers, who include so many of the "lunatic fringe" that they might believe anything but his campaign has become so important that it has taken precedence over every other issue presented, and from now on it is to be expected that he will be the storm center of the fight, will hold the stage. The result of the campaign will depend upon two things; first, on how much electoral strength he can rally, which has been a question from the first; but even more it will depend on the decision reached late in October by many million moderate voters as to what is the safe thing to do to insure his defeat. Such issues as exist between the two major parties have become of little account in the minds of the independent voters who will decide the election.

The campaign has been one of the dullest on record as between the two big parties, and there is little chance that it will change. Reports to Washington from all over the country agree that neither the issues raised nor the candi dates themselves are arousing any warmth. The country does not consider any of these issues both real and vital, and it finds little to choose between in the candidates. It likes them both, but very moderately. On the whole, perhaps from habit, it inclines so far to the Republican side. The League of Nations question has refused to come to life; the Republican corruption has not been nailed on Coolidge; the Klan has proved a poor kind of ammunition for both sides. The voters hold opinions on all

these matters, but do not get excited about them.

La Follette only has provided something lively, something that can be argued about enough to produce that pleasant mental heat which we love to have during campaigns. And, as has so often happened before, this one real issue has come to the top, in spite of the efforts of the bigger leaders to keep it quiet and the rather general attempt to ignore it. It has, in fact, become so dominant that the leaders of the two big parties have readjusted their campaign plans to take advantage of it, and that their major arguments—at least until or unless some new issue is handed them by Providence -will center around the La Follette question.

Both parties, therefore, find it to their advantage to admit that he is showing great strength; it is possible that they

are

even crediting him with more strength than they really believe he has. This is the first premise to the arguments both make.

The Democrats declare-and they will from now on insist upon this more and more strongly--that La Follette's vote in the Northwest and in some States not in that group will be so heavy that Coolidge cannot possibly get a majority of the Electoral College; that even if he should succeed there will be so many La Follette men in Congress that they will hold the balance of power and continue the chaos of the present Congress, and that therefore the only chance for a stable and effective Government lies in giving them --the Democrats-both the Presidency and Congress.

if that happens the man chosen will be Governor Bryan, naturally committed to all the policies on which his more famous brother has been beaten so often, and certain to be put under agreements with La Follette which would make the Senator virtually dictator. The only way to prevent this, they conclude, is to make sure that Coolidge wins.

It is still much too early, of course, to make any very close analysis of the real truth behind these two arguments, but there is a considerable amount of information that gives rather clear indications as to the country's state of mind at this moment. So many things may happen that prophecy is silly, but it can be told with reasonable accuracy what would happen if the election were being held this week.

In addition to the information reaching the headquarters of the big parties, which agrees pretty closely, in spite of the silly, all-embracing claims which the press agents put out, there are conclusions which may be drawn from the result of the Maine election, and from various straw votes and private polls in different parts of the country. Taken by themselves, these last have no great value, but as confirming other indications and information, and also because they agree very closely, they are worth noting.

The most complete so far, and in some ways the most interesting, is a canvass made through the Middle West by a National corporation which has good reasons for desiring advance information as to the result. It was intended chiefly to determine just how much La Follette would cut into the normal Republican vote in these States, and is therefore rather overweighted with the farmer and small-town vote. This poll indicates that through this region La Follette has practically no strength outside the cities, except in the States already practically conceded to him, and that his strength there is not so great as had been expected.

In Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois, for example, there is hardly a third-party vote outside the big cities, and what votes there are come from members of labor unions. Most of these have been normally Democratic. The total non-city vote in these States was more than two for Coolidge to one for both his opponents, and indicates a heavier Republican vote even than was cast in 1920. But this is, of course, incomplete. Polls in the cities show that La Follette is cutting into both Republican and Demo

cratic strength. There seems a chance that if the vote were taken this week he might carry Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Chicago, along with many of the smaller industrial cities like Akron and Gary. He will be strong in Detroit. In most of these cities Davis and Coolidge will run neck and neck. The net result of these indications is that in an election this week Coolidge would have a plurality of the vote, but not a majority, in all these States.

Across the Mississippi conditions vary slightly. La Follette gets small farmer support in Kansas, nor the southern half of Iowa. The northern half, and from there up through the Dakotas and Minnesota, will give him a heavy vote, however. The indications are that Brookhart will carry Iowa easily, but that Coolidge is in serious danger. The Northern wheat States are, apparently, not quite so strong for La Follette as had been expected, but these indications are too faint to be trusted. At any rate, he is apparently sure to carry them. He will have a big vote in Nebraska, but this comes mostly from the Germans, who are usually Democratic in that State, and so the chances favor a Coolidge plurality of around 20,000.

There are no strong indications that any of the border States will go Republican, though that is possible in Kentucky and Tennessee. Missouri seems safe for Davis if the Germans (Republican there) turn to La Follette as most Germans will. There is a very fair chance that Oklahoma will go to Coolidge. And there is about an equal chance that California will go to La Follette, with Coolidge second. It should be mentioned that some acute observers are predicting that La Follette will even carry New York City, on the combined. strength of the Jewish, German, and labor vote.

Taken together, all these indications mean that over the country at large there is very little falling off from the Harding vote of 1920 on the Republican side, except in the Northwest and California; that in the rest of the country La Follette has so far hurt Davis far more than he has Coolidge, making it unlikely that he will carry any important Northern or Eastern State. In short, that if the election were held this week Davis would get practically only the South and the border States, La Follette would get the Northwest and California, but that Coolidge would still be elected by a dozen votes. He would lose, however, if he lost any of the Eastern or Lake States, or two or three in the Middle West and the Rockies.

This is the situation as it stands with the election six weeks away, and this

shows what must be done by each party if it hopes to win, and how the campaign will be fought out. Coolidge must hold all he has now, and win something like a dozen doubtful votes, either from the border States conceded to Davis, from the six likely to go to La Follette, or from the doubtful States, which include Nebraska, Oklahoma, Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Idaho, Arizona, and Washington. These have a total of 41 electoral votes. Granting that the States mentioned earlier all hold their present attitude, he would need to win 25 of these. The belief that he can get them is responsible for the three-to-one betting odds in his favor.

The chance for Davis to win is very poor, according to this method of analysis. The South will almost surely give him the 139 votes it casts when solid. But even if he should carry West Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, Oklahoma, Indiana, Ohio, and California, he would still be 15 votes short; and there is no one I can find in either party who believes he can carry half those States. If he got New York, he could lose some and still win, but the most optimistic Democrats I can find do not expect him to carry New York-though most of them do expect Governor Smith in the Governorship contest to win the State.

For La Follette to succeed takes much less he is not trying to win the election, but simply to prevent it from working. The States which now seem at all likely to go to him total 51 votes. If La Follette can win enough more votes, or help Davis to win them, so that the two together have more than 266, then he will have accomplished his object.

One of the big questions of the campaign is whether he can win any additional votes; whether he can even hold the six States now credited to him. Cali

fornia is an uncertain hope for him, at best. There are indications of a conservative swing in the Dakotas and Minnesota, though the Republican campaign in those States is marked by the same awkwardness that characterized the Butler forces at the Cleveland Convention. With a real campaign one or two of these States could probably be won back to the Republicans. If that should happen, Coolidge would almost certainly win, but at this time it does not seem likely, and it also seems entirely possible that without them Coolidge will be beaten. The crux of the campaign, then, will be in the Northwest.

The second big question, upon which the result depends even more vitally, is what a few million independent voters finally decide as to the best way of insuring La Follette's defeat. Their tendency just now is to accept the Republican argument; the Democrats' one hope is to get them to change this tendency. With the issues between the big parties so fragile and the interest so low, it has become clear that those men and women who do not automatically vote a party ticket, but decide in each case for whom they will cast their ballots, are mostly going to do the thing that will seem most likely to prevent the confusion and injury which an indecisive election would

cause.

One such large group is the Ku Klux Klan. Some of its leaders have been trying to play politics for personal or organization reasons, but as the campaign has gone on there has been a decided swing toward Coolidge in the doubtful States. The Klan hates La Follette with a deep and thorough hatred-his war record, hyphenism, platform, associates, and supporters all make him obnoxiousand this consideration has been influencing the general policy of the organization. All through the North it has been

more and more openly opposing him, though this has had no control of its attitude in the State campaigns. If this tendency continues, Coolidge will get some half million normally Democratic votes from Klansmen-just to beat La Follette. They ought to be enough to insure his election.

Because of this peculiar issue-how La Follette can be beaten most effectively and certainly-the final crystallization of opinion in this campaign is likely to be late. Usually, when there

T

are definite issues, opinion begins to take sides early, and the result can be fairly accurately foretold some weeks in advance. But that is not true this year; just now there are indications of a trend toward Coolidge so great as to amount almost to a landslide, but it is still entirely possible for the Democrats, without changing a single one of their nominal issues, to win by convincing the independents that Davis will have a better chance than Coolidge to insure the defeat of the La Follette scheme. This

might even happen in the last few days.

Until that crystallization takes place the election will be completely in doubt. And that, too, seems likely to depend upon whether Coolidge can show any reasonable expectation of recovering some of the six States, all normally Republican, which are now likely to go to La Follette. If he can do that, it will be taken as fairly conclusive proof that he can win, and his band wagon will fill up fast.

HE Ku Klux Klan offered itself to the country in a new dress in the Klonvocation which has just closed here. Dropping in part the veil which has surrounded it, allowing outside reporters to be present for the first time at an important meeting, and plainly aiming its discussion at the outside world far more than at the delegates present, it attempted to give reasons for the faith that is in it. It presented a fairly definite and logical-though highly controversial-basis for its existence and purposes, claimed leadership in solving the present confusion and perplexities of thought, and made an open .bid for the support of all people of "American > minds."

By STANLEY FROST

Convention one big New York newspaper announced with conscious pride that it had learned that the Imperial Wizard would arrive in two days, when he had already been in New York for a week. And there is a reporter famous in the Klan because he once spent three days in a small hotel full of Klan officials gathered for an important meeting, and reported to his editor that there was no such meeting. Here was no such concealment; officials were registered under their own names, were accessible to reporters and talked fairly freely, andwonder of wonders--there was a press bureau!

Even more important than this change is the fact that the Klan has appealed to public opinion. It shows, of course, that the Klan believes it has at last formulated a statement of its case which will convince a large section of the public that has so far been against it. But it shows more; that the Klan believes it has a solution for many of our current ills of thought and of politics, on which it is entitled to the support of such people. It seems clear that the Klan is now planning to broaden its campaign and draw into its ranks many who have so far held aloof or actually opposed itfolks who want reasons instead of prejudices to back their actions.

In support of this bid, it offered a platform that is vague, indeed, but about as concrete as most political platforms. This puts the Klan frankly into the political field, not as a separate party, but as a "balance of power" when possible. Although the Klan declared that there was no change from its original purposes, and that it was merely a fulfillment and clarification of purposes which had been "instinctive" from the first, there is in fact a considerable change in the basis of thought. The new statement, instead of being founded on hostility to various classes and sects, takes its stand on support of Americanism as the Klan defines it, and offers no opposition to other groups except as they oppose or impede THIS does not mean that any of the

this kind of Americanism.

All this may fairly be taken as opening a new phase in the life of the Klan, at least in intention. The change from its former secrecy is rather startling to one who has for months seen the care and success with which leaders and purposes alike have been concealed. For example, during the Democratic National

But the Old Hostilities Remain

old hostilities and divisions which

the Klan has used are dropped. Far from it. They are restated, somewhat modified, limited in scope. But under the new statement they are intensified rather than weakened. There is less personal animus; far more insistence on fundamental and irreconcilable division. The new statement, in brief, assumes

that both race and religious lines are justified, that there is reason for instinctive prejudices, and attempts to give the reasons. Modern sociology and psychology and the latest discussions in ethics are called in to back up the Klan's platform of "native, white, Gentile, Protestant supremacy."

The whole tendency of the new statement of purpose is to draw more strictly than ever the line between the peoples of Nordic Protestant breed and all others, and to insist upon the right of the former class to complete control of America and its duty to keep its breed free from intermixture except with peoples of close racial kinship. The philosophy of the melting-pot is attacked root and branch.

This new statement of the Klan's purposes and justification of them was set forth by Dr. Hiram W. Evans, the Imperial Wizard, in three different speeches. Although these were given to the press, the published excerpts have so far failed to convey much of their real purpose, so that it seems worth while to review them at some length. There is always the possibility that they will be accepted by a considerable number of people, and thus become an important factor in thought and politics. To make the train of argument clear, I have taken the liberty of some rearrangement from the oratorical form in which it was presented.

His argument is, in brief, this:

That the Anglo-Saxon race, and particularly its admixture with the other northern races, which ruled this country till about thirty years ago, has made great and vital contributions to civilization. Among them he listed Protestantism, democracy, the republican form of government, freedom for thought and investigation, and religious liberty.

That this was made possible because