Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled TimeOxford University Press, USA, 2007年1月4日 - 338 頁 With Beyond Rationality, Kenneth R. Hammond, one of the most respected and experienced experts in judgment and decision-making, sums up his life's work and persuasively argues that decisions should be based on balance and pragmatism rather than rigid ideologies.Hammond has long focused on the dichotomy between theories of correspondence, whereby arguments correspond with reality, and coherence, whereby arguments strive to be internally consistent. He has persistently proposed a middle approach that draws from both of these modes of thought and so avoids the blunders of either extreme. In this volume, Hammond shows how particular ways of thinking that are common in the political process have led to the mistaken judgments that created our current political crisis. He illustrates this argument by analyzing penetrating case studies emphasizing the political consequences that arise when decision makers consciously or unconsciously ignore their adversaries' particular mode of thought. These analyses range from why Kennedy and Khruschev misunderstood each other to why Colin Powell erred in his judgments over the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. For anyone concerned about the current state of politics in the U.S. and where it will lead us, Beyond Rationality is required reading. |
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第 1 到 3 筆結果,共 35 筆
第 9 頁
... terrorists , it must therefore treat everyone as a possible terrorist — that is the " brute force " aspect — even though they know that this tactic will result in numerous false positives . A false positive is a general term for someone ...
... terrorists , it must therefore treat everyone as a possible terrorist — that is the " brute force " aspect — even though they know that this tactic will result in numerous false positives . A false positive is a general term for someone ...
第 317 頁
... Terrorist Attacks United States ( New York : Norton , 2004 ) , p . 323 . upon the 3. Washington Post , October 7 , 2004 , p . 1 . 4. Richard Posner , “ The 9/11 Report : A Dissent , " New York Times Review of Books , August 29 , 2004 ...
... Terrorist Attacks United States ( New York : Norton , 2004 ) , p . 323 . upon the 3. Washington Post , October 7 , 2004 , p . 1 . 4. Richard Posner , “ The 9/11 Report : A Dissent , " New York Times Review of Books , August 29 , 2004 ...
第 337 頁
... terrorism . See also al - Qaeda ; September II terrorist attacks anonymity of terrorists , 65-66 infrequency of events , 61-62 intentions of terrorists , 63-64 learning about terrorists , 64–67 learning by terrorists , 159 motivation of ...
... terrorism . See also al - Qaeda ; September II terrorist attacks anonymity of terrorists , 65-66 infrequency of events , 61-62 intentions of terrorists , 63-64 learning about terrorists , 64–67 learning by terrorists , 159 motivation of ...
內容
The Central Role of Human Judgment | 3 |
Combating Uncertainty | 15 |
The Strategy of Seeking Correspondence Competence | 29 |
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