Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled TimeOxford University Press, USA, 2007年1月4日 - 338 頁 With Beyond Rationality, Kenneth R. Hammond, one of the most respected and experienced experts in judgment and decision-making, sums up his life's work and persuasively argues that decisions should be based on balance and pragmatism rather than rigid ideologies.Hammond has long focused on the dichotomy between theories of correspondence, whereby arguments correspond with reality, and coherence, whereby arguments strive to be internally consistent. He has persistently proposed a middle approach that draws from both of these modes of thought and so avoids the blunders of either extreme. In this volume, Hammond shows how particular ways of thinking that are common in the political process have led to the mistaken judgments that created our current political crisis. He illustrates this argument by analyzing penetrating case studies emphasizing the political consequences that arise when decision makers consciously or unconsciously ignore their adversaries' particular mode of thought. These analyses range from why Kennedy and Khruschev misunderstood each other to why Colin Powell erred in his judgments over the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. For anyone concerned about the current state of politics in the U.S. and where it will lead us, Beyond Rationality is required reading. |
搜尋書籍內容
第 1 到 3 筆結果,共 56 筆
第 53 頁
... chapter 5 ) . But there are important differences between inferences involving natural se- lection and those involving sexual selection . First , there is a sharp competence difference between our accuracy when judging objects and ...
... chapter 5 ) . But there are important differences between inferences involving natural se- lection and those involving sexual selection . First , there is a sharp competence difference between our accuracy when judging objects and ...
第 303 頁
... Chapters in the History of Ideas ( New York : Knopf , 1991 ) , p . 15 . 4. See the Perry Link reference in note I of this chapter for a description of China's effort to control the use of the Internet . 5. Cass Sunstein , Republic.com ...
... Chapters in the History of Ideas ( New York : Knopf , 1991 ) , p . 15 . 4. See the Perry Link reference in note I of this chapter for a description of China's effort to control the use of the Internet . 5. Cass Sunstein , Republic.com ...
第 311 頁
... CHAPTER 14 1. Robert Rubin , In an Uncertain World : Tough Choices from Wall Street to Washington ( New York : Random House , 2003 ) . 2. Ibid . , p . X. 3. Ibid . , 4. Ibid . p . xi . 5. Walter Isaacson , Benjamin Franklin : An ...
... CHAPTER 14 1. Robert Rubin , In an Uncertain World : Tough Choices from Wall Street to Washington ( New York : Random House , 2003 ) . 2. Ibid . , p . X. 3. Ibid . , 4. Ibid . p . xi . 5. Walter Isaacson , Benjamin Franklin : An ...
內容
The Central Role of Human Judgment | 3 |
Combating Uncertainty | 15 |
The Strategy of Seeking Correspondence Competence | 29 |
著作權所有 | |
19 個其他區段未顯示
其他版本 - 查看全部
常見字詞
al-Qaeda analytical cognition answer Atul Gawande behavior believe bounded rationality Brunswik Cass Sunstein chapter cognitive activity cognitive continuum cognitive processes coherence competence coherence strategy Colin Powell common sense concept correspondence competence correspondence strategy critical Daniel Kahneman demand described ecological economists Egon Brunswik empirical environment example explain fact false negatives feedback Gerd Gigerenzer Gigerenzer and Todd Hammond Holmes human judgment Ibid idea important inferences intelligence intentions intuition and analysis Iraq irreducible uncertainty Isaiah Berlin Jared Diamond judg judgment and decision Judgment and Social Justice Kahneman Kennedy Kenneth Khrushchev logic Manhattan Project mathematical ment method military multiple fallible indicators natural Oliver Wendell Holmes organization Oxford University Press person Powell preemptive war president problem psychologists question reader reason result Saddam Hussein Scalia Simon Social Policy society Sunstein tactics task terrorist theme theory thought tion wisdom wrong York