Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled TimeOxford University Press, USA, 2007年1月4日 - 338 頁 With Beyond Rationality, Kenneth R. Hammond, one of the most respected and experienced experts in judgment and decision-making, sums up his life's work and persuasively argues that decisions should be based on balance and pragmatism rather than rigid ideologies.Hammond has long focused on the dichotomy between theories of correspondence, whereby arguments correspond with reality, and coherence, whereby arguments strive to be internally consistent. He has persistently proposed a middle approach that draws from both of these modes of thought and so avoids the blunders of either extreme. In this volume, Hammond shows how particular ways of thinking that are common in the political process have led to the mistaken judgments that created our current political crisis. He illustrates this argument by analyzing penetrating case studies emphasizing the political consequences that arise when decision makers consciously or unconsciously ignore their adversaries' particular mode of thought. These analyses range from why Kennedy and Khruschev misunderstood each other to why Colin Powell erred in his judgments over the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. For anyone concerned about the current state of politics in the U.S. and where it will lead us, Beyond Rationality is required reading. |
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第 1 到 3 筆結果,共 43 筆
第 98 頁
... argument for it , and on the argument's content . There may be possibili- ties for arguing by analogy , and so on , but the general principle holds that in the absence of an empirical criterion , coherence will be the criterion by which ...
... argument for it , and on the argument's content . There may be possibili- ties for arguing by analogy , and so on , but the general principle holds that in the absence of an empirical criterion , coherence will be the criterion by which ...
第 118 頁
... argument evil or benign - must always be more or less logical , more or less rational than another . There is no reason , for ex- ample , that the logic of the racist's argument must be more or less logically falla- cious than the ...
... argument evil or benign - must always be more or less logical , more or less rational than another . There is no reason , for ex- ample , that the logic of the racist's argument must be more or less logically falla- cious than the ...
第 119 頁
... arguments , and the argument is usually that a particular social arrangement is not only the best , but the best possible , arrange- ment . The argument is usually based on logic of the " if p , then q " variety ; that is , that if ...
... arguments , and the argument is usually that a particular social arrangement is not only the best , but the best possible , arrange- ment . The argument is usually based on logic of the " if p , then q " variety ; that is , that if ...
內容
The Central Role of Human Judgment | 3 |
Combating Uncertainty | 15 |
The Strategy of Seeking Correspondence Competence | 29 |
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al-Qaeda analytical cognition answer Atul Gawande behavior believe bounded rationality Brunswik Cass Sunstein chapter cognitive activity cognitive continuum cognitive processes coherence competence coherence strategy Colin Powell common sense concept correspondence competence correspondence strategy critical Daniel Kahneman demand described ecological economists Egon Brunswik empirical environment example explain fact false negatives feedback Gerd Gigerenzer Gigerenzer and Todd Hammond Holmes human judgment Ibid idea important inferences intelligence intentions intuition and analysis Iraq irreducible uncertainty Isaiah Berlin Jared Diamond judg judgment and decision Judgment and Social Justice Kahneman Kennedy Kenneth Khrushchev logic Manhattan Project mathematical ment method military multiple fallible indicators natural Oliver Wendell Holmes organization Oxford University Press person Powell preemptive war president problem psychologists question reader reason result Saddam Hussein Scalia Simon Social Policy society Sunstein tactics task terrorist theme theory thought tion wisdom wrong York