Table 13: PALM OIL PROJECTS IN FY 1976-78 LENDING PROGRAM /1 Estimated Annual Yield at Export Local Consumption 1 In addition to each 1,000 tons of Palm Oil produced, about 100 tons of Palm-Kernel Oil are produced. /2 Rehabilitation of existing plantations. 77-764 O 76 15 Projects Consist of some vetato palm oil production. Principally they levive 'outgrover production;' with particular mobatia en allholder development. 192.4 METHODOLOGICAL NOTE ON DEMAND PROJECTIONS ANNEX II 1. The following model was used to estimate per capita demand for fats b 44.8 -0.125 (price elasticity of demand for all fats and oils). 2. A distinctive feature of the demand for fats and oils is its high income elasticity at low levels of per capita income, which declines as incomes increase. The income elasticity approaches zero as per capita consumption reaches saturation. The first part of the model, a PIND, determines the saturation level of per capita fats and oils consumption, which is projected at 27.7 kg in 1980 and 27.3 kg in 1985. 3. The 1975 edition of the World Bank Atlas contains a list of the countries included in the demand projection for fats and oils. Per capita incomes (in constant 1974 US dollars) were projected for 1980 and 1985 on the basis of population projections prepared by the United Nations and the Bank's latest projections of real GNP for these countries. In projecting demand, we assumed that many developing countries will ration foreign exchange expenditures for imports of fats and oils. Should this not be the case demand for fats and oils in 1980 and 1985 could exceed projections by a margin of 2 to 3 percent. |