costs for soybeans in the U.S. and Brazil. 3/ The projected soybean prices, adjusted for 1970-75 inflation, under the three alternatives cover the estimated costs in Brazil and the U.S., except for Alternative III where returns to land and management could be low. Likewise projected palm oil prices cover estimated costs of delivering Malaysian palm oil to the U.S. with the present Malaysian export duties under Alternatives I and II. Unless the present export duties and taxes are lowered, returns above total palm oil costs will be low. In general, the price declines for fats and oils projected in Alternative I will put pressure on marginal producers of oilseeds and products, especially oilseeds having a high oil/meal ratio. Under Alternative 11, the price relationship continues to favor meals although prices for fats and oils also are expected to rise. Conditions under Alternative Ill will put real pressure on producers of all oilseeds, especially those with higher production costs and a low meal/oil ratio. 3/ Explanatory Study of brazil Soybean Marketing, AEKR 144, Univ. of 11linois p. 18 and Table 11 in Analysis of the Fats and Oils Industry To 1980, with Implications for Palm Oil Imports, ERS-627. Region Table 5-.--01lmeals supply demand and net export projections to 1985 under 3 alternatives 1969-71 Pro- : Con- : Net : Alternative I Alternative II Pro- : Con- : Net : Pro Alternative 111 Con- : Net Pro- : Con- : Net duction: Buription: Exports: duction: sumption: Exports: duction : sumption: Exporto : duction : sumption: Exports Fishmeal is adjusted by a 1/ Oilmeals include those from soybeans, peanuta, rapeseed, sunflower, linseed, sesame, copra, palm kernels and fishmeal. factor of 1.5 to reflect its higher protein content. All quantity and growth rate data shown were computed from unrounded data. : 1969/71 Table --Total vegetable oils: Projected mupply en 1985, annual growth rates, and regional shares under three alternatives : 1985 11 : 111 : I :Alternative: Alternative:Alternative:Alternative:Alternative:Alternative: I -- Thousand metric tons Growth rates : 11 : : Vegetable oils and palm. include those from soybeans peanuts rapeseed sunflower. pra, palm kernals, sesame, olive, Table53--Animal fats: Projected supply to 1985, annual growth rates, and regional shares under three alternatives 1985 Growth raten : : 1969/71 :Alternative:Alternative:Alternative:Alternative:Alternative:Alternative: 1969/71 : I : I Animal fats include lard, fishoil and butter, on an actual weight basis. S-4 Table-Total fats and oile: Projected supply to 1985, annual growth rates, and regional shares under three alternatives 1985 Growth raten :Alternative:Alternative:Alternative:Alternative:Alternative:Alternative: 1969/71 : 7,499 10,149 11,148 9,284 2.0 2.7 1.4 22.2 18.8 19.5 17.7 1,101 1,272 1,015 4.4 3.4 3.9 1.7 2.0 2.5 1.9 3.644 3,842 1.7 1.2 1.6 9.0 7.3 6.4 7.4 Other Western Europe : 1,376 1,736 1,798 1,793 1.6 1.8 1.8 4.1 3.2 3.1 3.4 Japan : 249 366 377 360 2.6 2.8 2.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Australia/New Zealand : 310 370 342 442 1.2 0.7 2.4 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 2.3 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.1 Total : 13,551 18,245 19,289 17,313 2.0 2.4 1.6 40.1 33.8 33.8 33.2 |