advanced, by wide fteps, during the laft century, in the fcience of politics, we have ftill much to learn; but that the fummit can only be gained, by substituting accurate research for delufive fpeculation, and by rejecting zeal of paradox, for moderation of opinion.

Mankind are now too enlightened to admit of confident affertion, in the place of fatisfactory proof, or plaufible novelty, for conclufive evidence. He, confequently, who proposes new modes of argument, muft expect contradiction, and he who draws novel conclufions from uncommon premises, ought to enable the reader to examine his reasonings; because it is juft inquiry, which can alone establish the certainty of truth on the degradation of error. And little therefore is afferted in the following fheets, without the citation of fufficient authorities, or the mention of authentic documents, which it is now proper to explain.

As early as the reign of James I. ingenuity exerted its powers to discover, through the thick cloud which then enveloped an interesting subject, the value of our exports and of our imports; and thence, by an easy deduction, to find, whether we were gainers, or lofers, by our traffic. Diligent inquirers looked into the entries at the custom-house, because they knew, that a duty of five in the hundred being collected on the value of commodities, which were sent out and brought in, it would require no difficult calculation, to afcertain nearly the amount of both. And, during that reign, it was established as a rule, not only among merchants, but statesmen, to multiply the general value of the customs, inwards and outwards, by twenty, in order to find the true amount of the various articles, which formed the aggregate of our foreign trade.

Exception

Exceptionable as this mode was, it furnished, through feveral years of darknefs, the only light that our ancestors had to direct their inexperienced steps, notwithstanding the impatience of politicians, and even the efforts of minifters. It is difficult to induce the old to alter the modes of their youth, When the committee of the privy council for trade, urged the commiffioners of the customs, about the end of Charles II.'s reign," to enter the feveral commodities, which formed the exports and imports, to affix to each its ufual price, and to form a general total, by calculating the value of the whole," the custom-house officers infifted,"that, to comply with fuch directions, would require one half of the clerks of London."-And the theorifts of thofe times continued to fatisfy their curiofity, and to alarm the nation on the fide of her commercial jealousy; fince there existed no written evidence, by which their statements could be proved, or their declamations confuted.

It was to the liberality, no less than to the perseverance, of the House of Peers, that the public were at last indebted, in 1696, for the establishment of the Inspector-General of the Imports and Exports, and for the Custom-house Ledger, which contains the particulars and value of both; and which forms, therefore, the most useful record, with regard to trade, that any country poffeffes.

From this authentic regifter, the parliament was yearly fupplied with details, either for argument, or deliberation, and speculatists were furnished with extracts for the exercife of their ingenuity, or the formation of their projects. And it is from this commercial regifter, that the value of cargoes exported, which will be fo often mentioned in this work, was alfo taken.

But, as actual enjoyment feldom enfures continued fatis faction, what had been demanded for a century, when it was regarded as unattainable, was ere long derided as defective, when it was poffeffed. And theorists, who pointed out the defects of an establishment, that could not be made perfect, found believers enow, because men's pride is gratified, by feeing imperfection in all things.

Against objectors, who thus eafily found abettors, it was juftly remarked, that a record, containing each specific article of our imports and exports, with the mercantile valué affixed to each, would give us, as it was originally intended, by a calculation tedious yet certain, the true value of both, at least with as much exactness as a vast detail admits, or public utility demands; that it was not probably perceived, how impoffible it is to fet bounds to human vanity, cáprice, and deceit, but, that as man, when engaged in fimilar purfuits, acts nearly a fimilar part, it was reasonable to infer, that the fame vanity, caprice, or deceit, which, in one age, incited the trader to make exaggerated entries at the cuf tom-house, urged him, in every period, to gratify his ruling paffion, when he was not carried from his bias by the dread of a forfeiture or a tax; fo that the average of error, during one feafon, would be nearly equal to the average of error at any other epoch,

When the committee of Peers originally affixed the price, whereby each article of export and import should in future be rated, they probably knew, that the fucceffive fluctuation of demand, arifing from the change of fashion, would neceffarily raife the value of fome articles, and fink the price of others; but, that the fame fluctuation of taste, which, in one age, occafioned an apparent error, would in the next re-establish the rule, Nor, did the Peers probably expect to

4

ascertain

afcertain the real value of the exports, or of imports, of the current year; as the prodigious extent of the calculation did not admit of a speedy deduction. But, they aimed with a laudable spirit to establish a standard, whereby a just comparison might be made between any two given periods of the paft; and thereby to infer, whether our manufactures and commerce profpered or declined, prior to the current year. This information the Ledger of the Inspector-General does certainly convey, with fufficient accuracy, for the uses of practice, or the speculations of theory. And, by contrafting, in the following work, the average exports of distant years, we are by this means enabled to trace the rise, the decline, or the progress of traffic, at different periods, even in every reign.

It is to the fame age that we owe the establishment of The register-general of shipping. The original inftitution of this office arose from an indefinite claufe in the commiffion of the customs, in 1701. Thus it continued incidental to the appointment of the Custom-house commiffioners, till the act for the union with Scotland, requiring the then ships of Scots property to be registered in this office, it was thought fit to give it a distinct establishment, and at the fame time to extend the account kept before of all fhips trading over fea, or coaft ways, in England, to the fhips in Scotland *."

The fame reasons, which had induced the traders to enter at the Custom-house, in refpect to their merchandizes, rather too much, incited them, with regard to their veffels, to regifter the burden rather too low, because a tonnage duty, they knew, would be often required of them

*Charles Godolphin's Memorial to the Treasury, Dec. 1717.

at many ports: in the firft operation they were governed by their vanity; in the fecond by their intereft: and if the one furnishes an evidence too flattering, the other gives a teftimony too degrading. Thus have we, in the entries of the shipping at the Custom-house, all the certainty that the entries of merchandize has been supposed to want. And in the following work the quantity of tonnage, rather than the number of ships, has been always ftated, at different periods, with the value of cargoes, which they were supposed to transport, as being the moft certain: when to the value of cargoes the tonnage is added, in the following pages, the reader is furnished with a supplemental proof to the ufual notices, which each separately convey.

Of the tonnage of veffels, which will so often occur in the subsequent sheets, it must be always remembered, that they do not denote fo many diftinct fhips, which performed fo many fingle voyages: for, it frequently happens, that one veffel enters and clears at the Custom-house several times in one year, as the colliers of Whitehaven and Newcaftle: but, these repeated voyages were in this manner always made, and will conftantly continue; so that, being -always included in the annual tonnage, we are equally enabled to form a comparative estimate of the advance, or decline, of our navigation, at any two given epochs of the past. It is to be moreover remembered, that the British veffels enter at the Custom-house by the registered tons, and not by the meafured burden of the fhip, which is fupposed to be formerly one-third more; fo that the reader may in every year, through the following statements, calculate the tonnage at one-third more, than the registered tonnage has given it, prior to 1786.

The