Despite the fact that the nonferrous metals make up only about 7 percent of the total weight produced, the actual value is in a much larger proportion. The money value of the nonferrous metals in world production comfortably exceeds the money value of all the pig iron produced. In the United States the ratio is somewhat different for we are no longer the largest gold-producing country, but still our nonferrous metals are almost as valuable as the pig iron. This is shown in figure 61. As far as can be seen from this figure, there is no definite trend for the nonferrous metals to change their relative value over a period of years, but the two curves do give some idea of the relative importance of the two types of metals in our economic life.

Trends in the Cost of Metal

The trend of metal prices, relative to the general price level of commodities, during the last century has certainly been downward. If it had not been true, it would not have been possible to utilize the immense number of steel products which we find in the present era. In general, these decreasing prices have been a

WORLD PRODUCTION OF NON-FERROUS
METALS FOR 50 YEARS

AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL METAL PRODUCTION Source: Modern Uses of Non-Ferrous Metals, ed Mathewson

reflection of improved methods of production or lucky finds of rich ore deposits or both. As mineral deposits are depleted, the price naturally tends to rise, unless there are technological developments in processing which more than take care of the increased difficulty of recovery of the valuable part of the ore. So far, in this country, improved processes have very definitely kept ahead of whatever ore depletion there may have been, and that trend will probably continue for some time to come. There are some of these metals which we do not produce in any significant quantities because of poor qualities of ores. There are others, such as copper, of which we have an abundance of ore, but which is of a distinctly lower grade than that obtainable in other parts of the world, so American producers have difficulty in competing in the world market. However, even in these materials, the price tendency will probably be down, or at least constant, for some time to come unless there are artificial trade barriers which tend to keep the United States isolated from the rest of the world.

The price of pig iron and steel since 1910 is shown in figure 62. Since 1920 there has been a decided apparent reduction in price. The prices of the four principal nonferrous metals are shown in figure 63. However, the data should be interpreted in a somewhat different manner in order to show the price trends measured in terms of other commodities. Hence the data of figures 62 and 63 have been recomputed to give the "real" price of the various materials as adjusted by the price of individual commodities which are in use in this country. The basis of comparison is taken as the year 1926. The computations have been made on the basis of Dun's Weighted Index of Three Hundred Commodities and the Department of Labor, Weighted Index of 784 Commodities. The data so obtained then should really indicate the value of a ton of steel in terms of loaves of bread, pairs of shoes, or pounds of

PRODUCTION OF NON-FERROUS METALS, PER CENT OF TOTAL

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sugar better than the simple listings of market data in the less fundamental item of the dollar.

The relative real price of pig iron and steel (1926=100) since 1913 is shown in figures 64 and 65. Since the period of the World War the trend has been downward though it has taken an upward turn since 1928. It is very likely that the real price level over the next decade or so will remain about constant. The relative real price of the principal nonferrous metals— aluminum, copper, lead, and zinc-are given in figures 66 to 69, inclusive. On the basis of both commodity indexes, the price of aluminum following the World War seems to have wavered around a constant figure. This is probably because of the fact that in the aluminum production no fundamental process changes have entered the picture for several decades. There is every indication that this condition may change very shortly

and the aluminum price may be expected to come down. This will be discussed in a later section.

Copper, lead, and zinc show definite downward tendencies, though each of these curves has some decided hills and valleys.

From one point of view it might seem that the developments toward labor saving in the past two decades have not fulfilled their fundamental possibilities, because the prices of the metals have not made more drastic drops. There, of course, have been accusations to the effect that the metal industries, particularly iron and steel, have a much too heavy financial superstructure and hence the benefits of increased efficiency of production do not filter through to the consumer. It is very likely, however, that the truth of the matter is that the greater efficiency of production has given a slightly downward trend in the cost, but that greater

social values have come about from the fact that the customer is now getting more for his money; that is, the quality of the products is distinctly and rapidly improving, both in chemical composition and in physical structure of the material. In the matter of estimating costs, the fact is significant that the amount of wages paid to labor has been greatly increased and the working conditions have been improved. This is particularly true in the iron and steel industry, for, in the first half of the 1920 decade, the steel worker was on the job 12 hours a day and often 7 days a week, whereas, despite the former grim opposition of steel executives, he is now, even at times of full employment, on an 8-hour day and works not more than 6 days per week. Thus, labor and the customer have both been greatly benefited. In considering the value

received for the customer's dollar, these items must be kept in mind. These general tendencies in the real price of metals have been slightly downward only by virtue of the fact that the men who have been in the production end of the game have been successful either by fundamental research or, more often, by cumbersome processes of trial and error in handling the raw materials more efficiently. As more and more metals are taken from the crust of the earth, the quality of the ores and the ease with which they can be obtained will both decrease and, if the prices of metals are to continue downward or even to remain constant, it will be necessary to continue research and development at all times.

Any marked decrease in the price of metal products can certainly be expected to expand their market, but

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it is quite likely that within the next generation such a decrease in price can be found not in the cost of the raw material, but in the cost of manufacturing of many articles and in their distribution. At the present time the cost of the raw material in the average finished article makes up only a very small proportion of the price paid by the consumer, so the part which metallurgists can play in the reduction of cost is probably not as great as the possible savings in the lines of advertising and marketing. Technical men are repeatedly distressed at seeing a 10-percent saving in production costs squandered many times over by a greatly inflated sales and advertising budget. However, no fundamental improvement in the situation can be ex

pected as long as the American public actually prefers ballyhoo to getting its money's worth. Of course, this statement is not true for those types of heavy structures where the cost of the raw material is the major item.

Eventually the prices of all metals must rise as the quality of the available ores becomes poorer, for technological developments cannot always keep ahead of depleting resources. The price of some metals may start on the upgrade before many years pass, but it would be hazardous to predict which ones or how soon this tendency will be effective. It is quite certain that within the next generation the real price of some of our metals will rise enough to discourage increased use. This will mean that the material standard of living