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It is not, however, always as easy as it might seem to know what statistics really teach when we have them. For example, statistical tables and diagrams which follow show that the purchasing power of gold has enormously increased during the past thirty years, and that the farmer who for that period has kept alive an old mortgage, by renewals, must now dispose of far more produce to pay the debt, than would have paid it when originally contracted. On the other hand, tables of current rates of interest, for the same period, equally authentic, and indeed with less liability to error, show that in 1896 it required twice as much money invested in gilt-edged bonds, to produce an income of $1,000, as would have produced that income in 1870. To arrive at a correct conclusion these two tables, possibly, upon analysis, not so contradictory as they seem, must somehow be reconciled. A skilful controversialist, by using only one set of these tables, can make an argument, unanswerable by a popular audience, which will show that debtors are suffering very severely by the appreciation of money, and immediately thereafter take the other table before another audience, and with equal conclusiveness, prove that the poor creditors have practically lost half their debts. One can prove almost anything by statistics, so long as he is permitted to select his tables. Imperfect as many of them are, statistics are invaluable for the study of economic problems, as long as they are intelligently and honestly employed, and all the facts, instead of only part of them, are considered. This is sometimes very difficult. Not only is our information limited, but our mental powers, which largely accounts for the zeal with which good men differ on economic problems. It is not everyone who has the intellectual grasp to compass great subjects.

Statistical tables make a very dreary looking page for the ordinary reader, and are, of course, not intended to be read by any one, but to be referred to when it is desired to make use of the facts which they show. For the purpose of quickly conveying the facts of statistical tables to the reader, it is a common practice to employ diagrams, drawn to a scale, upon which the fluctuations of the tables are shown by lines. This is a very useful practice, as it enables the eye to take in at a glance the lesson of a long column of figures. Like many

other good things, however, the method may be easily abused, and, in the hands of designing persons, be made to convey impressions not at all warranted by the facts. The trick is very simple, and consists merely in making the vertical spaces of the scale large or small, in relation to the horizontal spaces, according as the draughtsmen desire to convey the impression of great or small fluctuations. For example, the ratio of silver to gold previous to 1873 was constantly fluctuating, and yet the variations were so small, that popular discussions of the relations of silver and gold usually take no account of them, and silver and gold are often, and properly enough, represented on diagrams by an identical line, for some years previous to 1873. It would be very easy, however, for a series of those years, by constructing a diagram in which vertical spaces of one inch should represent one per cent of variation, and horizontal spaces of one-half inch represent years, to convey the impression that the ratios of the two metals were fluctuating within very wide limits. The increasing use of these diagrams in popular discussion, sometimes very disingenuously, makes it proper to give this caution. Economists and students, and political

writers in their private studies, pay very little attention to diagrams illustrating controverted topics, because they must constantly guard against false impressions. They study the tables, and if they desire diagrams they construct them, which any one can do who will take the trouble to draw the spaces evenly.

I can best illustrate this by an example, and for this purpose will take a subject which is illustrated in this way perhaps more frequently than any other -the variations in the ratio between gold and silver since 1873. Diagrams I., II., and III. represent precisely the same thing, as a careful inspection will show, and yet, when drawn separately, upon a blackboard, they would produce a very different effect upon an audience. Diagram I. differs from II. merely in having its vertical spaces twice as large, while diagram III. differs from II, only in having the horizontal spaces doubled. They all represent the appreciation of gold, as compared with commodities, according to the tables of the London Economist, for the period covered. (See pages 614 and 615.)

3. STATISTICAL AUTHORITIES.-The original authorities relating to the production and stocks of the precious metals, and emissions of paper money, are mainly the records of the governments of the world. The principal nations now publish this information annually, compiled from official sources. The earlier estimates were compiled by eminent statisticians from researches in governmental archives, and such other sources as in their judgment are entitled to respect. The basis of confidence is in the competence of the compiler. None are included here which have not received the endorsement of the Director of the United States Mint, or the Finance Committee of the United States Senate by being included in official publications. The same may be said as to the table of ratios. In regard to prices, the most exhaustive study ever made in any country is that made under the direction of a sub-committee of the Finance Committee of the United States Senate, and found in Senate Report No. 1,394, Fifty-second Congress, second session (1893). The period covered begins with 1840, and ends with 1891. These tables include the course of wholesale prices of from two to three hundred articles in the United States. These tables have never been continued. There are many similar tables compiled by statisticians, of which those most commonly referred to are those of Dr. Augustus Sauerbeck, of London, of forty-five articles in England, and the London Economist, of twenty-two commodities. These are regularly continued each year. Another very valuable set of tables is that of Dr. Adolf Soetbeer, of Germany, and continued, after his death, by others. These tables give the wholesale prices of one hundred commodities in Germany, and fourteen English articles. Other recognized statistical authorities are the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, London, which is made up of original contributions, and Mulhall's Dictionary of Statistics, which is a compilation. For convenient reference Waldron's Handbook of Currrency and Wealth (Funk & Wagnalls, New York, 1896. Price fifty cents) is an excellent compendium, containing most of the tables to which it is usual to refer in discussing currency topics. For careful study all these tables require the aid of explanatory matter which always accompanies their original publication, but for which there is no space in a compact summary.

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APPRECIATION OF GOLD, MEASURED BY ITS PURCHASING POWER. From 1873 to 1892. From Coinage Laws of the U. S.

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For explanation of Diagrams I. II. and III., see previous page.

1892

40%

30%

20%

10%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1873

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1875

1880

DIAGRAM III.

Diagrams I., II, and III, show the appreciation of the purchasing power of gold on the basis of the "Economist” index numbers. The width of the page (for Diagrams I. and II.) does not permit the extension of the diagram to date, but reference to Diagram XII. will show that gold prices have fallen since 1892, or, in other words, that the purchasing power of gold has still further appreciated since that date,

See text (pages 612 and 613) for full explanation of these three diagrams.

1885

615

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Coined.

Uncoined.

Total.

Fine ounces. Fine ounces. Fine ounces. 277,667,000 473,666,000 751,333,000 735,000,000 735,000,000 1,470,000,000

46,000 88,000 1,372,000,000 1,502,667,000 2,874,667,000 67,800 113,000 1,476,533,000 2,214,800,000 3,691,333,000 75,500 135,000 2,107,000,000 2,303,000,000 4,410,000,000 71,300 145,000 2,407,533,000 2,329,134,000 4,736, ,667,000 76,900 165,000 2,877,933,000 2,512,067,000 5,390,000,000 80,100 180,000 3,263,400,000 2,616,600,000 5,880,000,000

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Estimates for the years 1873 and 1894 are made by Mr. G. B. Waldron, based on the world's production and coinage. Estimates for other years in tons on the authority of Mulhall. Converted into fine ounces at the rate of 321⁄2 thousand ounces to the ton of 2240 pounds.

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