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The result of the elections as evident sixty hours after the polls had closed (when this number of The Outlook went to press) was:

1. As to the Presidency—on the face of the returns, the re-election of Woodrow Wilson. 2. As to the Senate—a somewhat reduced Democratic majority.

3. As to the House of Representatives—an almost even division between the Democrats and their opponents (including Republicans and six or seven members of minor parties).

4. As to State officers—no apparent increase by either party in the total number of State administrations.

5. As to liquor legislation—the adoption of prohibition in four States, its rejection in two or three States.

6. As to votes for women—the possible adoption of woman suffrage by South Dakota, and its rejection in West Virginia.

that the final decision might be reached only after an official recount. When on Thursday at midnight California was reported as giving President Wilson a majority of over three thousand, his re-election seemed assured.

THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Nobody knew definitely two days after the election whether President Wilson or Mr. Hughes had been elected for the next four years, or even when it would be decided that one or the other had been elected. The election of the President is not determined by the majority of votes cast, but by the majority of electors chosen.

Each State has a certain number of electoral votes, according to the number of representatives it has in the Senate and the House. The lowest possible number of electors for any State is three, since every State has two Senators and at least one Representative. New York has the largest body of electors, namely, forty-five; while New Mexico, Delaware, Arizona, Wyoming, and Nevada have three each.

Twenty-four hours after the polls had closed it seemed that of the 531 electoral votes President Wilson was fairly certain of 251—fifteen short of a majority. The States whose votes seemed then most uncertain were California, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, and (much to the general surprise) New Hampshire. It then seemed certain that President Wilson would win by gaining either California or Minnesota and any one of the other three States; while Mr. Hughes would need either both California and Minnesota or else one of these two and all the other three. At one time it seemed possible that the result might turn upon the three votes of New Mexico. Very narrow pluralities in several States suggested

DAYS OF UNCERTAINTY

When the sun set on election day in the East, it was still shining in the western part of the country, and in some Western States the polls closed at a later hour than in some of the Eastern States. Consequently, when the returns began to come in from New England and New York and New Jersey and Pennsylvania and the other States along the Atlantic, voters in California were still casting their ballots. Indeed, between the closing of the polls in New York at five and the closing of the polls in California at seven o'clock there was an actual difference of five hours. The East was known to be Hughes territory, and when the early returns began to come in showing big pluralities for Hughes there was no particular cause for surprise. But what did surprise and mislead, not only the ordinary citizen, but the trained observer of political matters, were the large Hughes majorities in the precinct returns from such a State as Illinois. When it began to be known on Tuesday night by nine or halfpast nine o'clock that Hughes had not only carried most, if not all, of the North Atlantic seaboard States, but had won in the great Middle Western States of Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Indiana, it seemed to many impossible that there was any chance

for the President's re-election. Indeed, the social justice. To them the dangers of the New York ® Times," an ardent and consist- reaction that might come through a change ent supporter of President Wilson through- in parties seemed to be more imminent than out the campaign, flashed from the top of its any danger of neglect of duty on the part tower the red light which it had adopted as of the Nation toward the rest of the world or the signal for the election of Mr. Hughes, toward its own citizens in foreign parts. and kept that red light steadily burning until We discuss the significance of this election midnight.

at greater length on another page. That Ohio had gone for Mr. Wilson was no surprise. To the supporters of Mr. THE CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS Hughes, however, the silence of Minne- Though the Democrats apparently remain sota, which was not heard from, seemed in control of Congress, the elections have ominous. And those who had been pre- somewhat changed its complexion. pared for signs of the President's strength The upper branch of Congress, the Sen. in the West were waiting for later informa- ate, has a membership of 96; the necessary tion concerning the Rocky Mountain States majority is 49. The lower branch of Conand the States of the Pacific coast. Early gress, the House of Representatives, has a returns from California seemed to indicate membership of 435; the necessary majority safe pluralities for Mr. Hughes, but these re- is 218. ports proved misleading. By the next morn- The present Senate stands 56 Democrats ing the returns coming in from the States to 40 Republicans--a Democratic majority that had not been heard from seemed to be of 16. According to latest returns, the almost overwhelmingly favorable to President future Senate may have 54 Democrats and Wilson. The Western and Rocky Mountain 42 Republicans—a Democratic majority of States of Idaho, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, 12. Montana, Nevada, Wyoming, Utah, Wash- The present House has 229 Democrats, ington, all fell into the Wilson column. 198 Republicans, 6 Progressives, one SocialThese, with Maryland and Kentucky, the ist, and one Independent-a Democratic Southwestern States of Arizona, Oklahoma, majority of 23 over the Republicans and the and Missouri, the Middle Western State of members of the minor political parties. Ohio, and the “ solid South,” comprised the According to partial returns, the future unquestioned Wilson territory.

House may consist in a practical tie as beThe spirit of Nationalism, as indicated by tween Republicans and Democrats when the Republican pluralities, reached higher final returns have been reported, but with levels in parts of the Middle West than some indications favoring a very slight Republican expected. Illinois, with its great body of majority. newly enfranchised women voters, did not yield to the counsels of caution and “safety

NEW SENATORS AND OLD first." Apparently the women of Hlinois In last week's election 33 United States were as ready as the men to regard National Senators were chosen, but, in all, 35 new duty as paramount, whatever hardship might Senators will take their seats next March. come with it. On the o her hand, the other The 35 include the two Senators elected by so-called suffrage States seem to be predom- the Republicans in the September Maine inantly for President Wilson and the Demo- election. The 35 also include the one-third cratic ticket. But it is plain that if that increase of the whole number of Senators vote indicates a yielding of duty to a desire necessary every two years, and the replacefor comfort and tranquillity, the men ments of those who died in office. well as the women share the responsibility. In the Senate the Republican gains have As a matter of fact, the Democratic been in the States of Maine, Maryland, New vote of the Far West is an indication Jersey, New York, Indiana, and West Virthat the people of that region are less ginia ; the Democratic gains have been in responsive to the spirit of Nationalism the States of Delaware, Rhode Island, Utah, than they are responsive to the spirit of and later returns may disclose victories also democracy. They may be forgetful of the in New Mexico and Wyoming. duty that this Nation owes to other nations or Next to the choice of the President probto its own citizens on the high seas and in ably the most notable result of last Tuesday's oreign lands, but they have a lively sense of elections is the new Republican blood in the

as

1916

THE WEEK

575

are

Senate, for the Republican Senatorial gains succession to the seats now occupied by are more significant not only in quantity but Senators Kern and Taggart, Democrats. In also in quality than are the Democratic. Maine, ex-Governor Fernald, Republican, Most noteworthy is Hiram Johnson, of Cali- will appear alongside Colonel Frederick fornia, Republican, succeeding to the seat of Hale, Republican, who won the seat now Senator Woks, Republican. Mr. Johnson occupied by Senator Charles F. Johnson, is known throughout the whole country as a a Democrat. The most surprising Reman of compelling force, and especially an publican victories, however, have been in executive who has made of California the most the border States of Maryland and West progressive State in the Union. He has always Virginia. The first remains Democratic, and maintained the qualities which distinguished yet Dr. Joseph Erwin France, Republican, him when he was one of the prosecuting will replace Senator Blair Lee, Democrat, in attorneys in the San Francisco cases involving the Senate; from the second State, which leading city officials and almost all the public now becomes Republican, Representative utility corporations. He was one of the Sutherland will replace Senator William E. founders of the Progressive party, and was Chilton, Democrat. These victories its candidate for Vice-President. A portrait plainly due to independent thinking. . of Senator-elect Johnson appears on another Among Republican Senators replaced by page.

Democrats we have to chronicle three unexFrank B. Kellogg, of Minnesota, succeeds pected disappearances of well-known figures, to the seat of Senator Clapp, a progressive two of them from States hitherto considered Republican. Mr. Kellogg is another famous by Republicans as “rock-ribbed," namely, prosecutor. He represented the United Utah and Rhode Island. From the first the States Government against the Standard Oil Senate will lose George Sutherland, who has Company; he was also special counsel for been in that body for ixteen years, his sucthe Inter-State Commerce Commission in the cessor being William H. King. Mr. Sutheraction to dissolve the Union Pacific-Southern land has been justly regarded as one of Pacific merger.

the foremost lawyers of the upper house. A well-known figure reappears in the From Rhode Island, Henry F. Lippitt, person of Philander C. Knox, Republican, an expert in tariff schedules, is to be from Pennsylvania, succeeding Senator Oliver, replaced by Peter Goelet Gerry. From a Republican. Mr. Knox was Attorney

Mr. Knox was Attorney- Delaware, Colonel Henry A. du Pont, an General of the Cabinets of Presidents authority on military matters, is to be reMcKinley and Roosevelt, and discharged the placed by Josiah O. Wolcott. The Republic duties of that office with signal ability. He can defeats in two of these three States became United States Senator in 1904, and may be attributed to factional disputes. In resigned in 1909 to accept the office of Wyoming the election of the Democratic Secretary of State in President's Taft's Governor Kendrick to succeed United States Cabinet.

Senator Clark seems to be confirmed at this Another improvement in the personnel of writing the Senate results from the election of Joseph Of the Senators re-elected, Mr. Lodge, of S. Frelinghuysen, of New Jersey, who suc- Massachusetts, Republican, looms largest. ceeds to the seat of Senator Martine, Demo- For many years he has been rightly regarded crat. In no State occurred a more striking as the Senate's intellectual leader. Other setback to a political machine than that re- notable Republicans re-elected are Senators sulting in the unexpected choice by the New Poindexter, of Washington (though the State Jersey primaries of Mr. Frelinghuysen over 6 went" for a Democratic President and a the Hon. Franklin Murphy, the machine can- Democratic Governor), La Follette, of Wiscondidate. Mr. Frelinghuysen is a

man of

sin, McLean, of Connecticut, and Page, of strong fiber.

Vermont. Mr. Poindexter has been a ProWilliam M. Calder, of New York, is also gressive and is now a Republican, whereas a new man in the Senate. He has had a Mr. La Follette, who has been a Republican, decade's experience in the House. Mr. has now become really an Independent. Calder succeeds to the seat now held by although still rated a Republican. At alı the Hon. James A. O'Goi man, Democrat. events, he has espoused some of the Wilson There come also Harry S. New and James policies, and in the campaign had nothing to E. Watson, Republicans, from Indiana, in say in support of Mr. Hughes ; despite

this, he was re-elected, owing to his large districts and may in some others as well. In personal following:

Pennsylvania, William H. Coleman, Repub The following well-known Democratic lican, seems to be elected by a majority of legislators have been re-elected : Senators only twenty votes in his district, and A. J. Williams, of Mississippi ; Reed, of Missouri ; Barchfield, Republican, appears to be deMyers, of Montana ; Pittman, of Nevada ; feated by only nineteen votes in his district. Culberson, of Texas ; and Swanson, of Vir- Hence, as members of the National Guard ginia.

from these districts are at the border and

voted Tuesday, the fate of Coleman and SOME REPRESENTATIVES

Barchfield will not be known until the soldier ELECTED AND DEFEATED

votes have been officially canvassed. In the House, according to present returns, the Republicans have gained Representatives THE ELECTION AND THE STATES from Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, It is difficult, after any general election, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, New York, New for a reader of the American press to form Jersey, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin. definite conclusions as to the issues and reThe Democrats have gained Representatives sults of the State elections. In the first from Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, place, the first returns from the States are Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and have won back almost invariably inaccurate. In the second the one North Carolina seat held by a Re- place, the final returns are too often unpubpublican.

lished because they have, in the eyes of the Among new men in the House is Medill daily press, lost their news value. McCormick, of Illinois, who went into the But even while the National elections were Progressive party but returned to the Re- still hanging in the balance, there were, howpublican party before the Progressive Conven- ever, certain definite tendencies clearly shown tion in Chicago last June. Thus far no one by the result of the polls of the votes of the of the familiar “ war horses ” of either party States on their internal affairs. has been defeated. The House, therefore, will The most interesting facts demonstrated still have the presence of such Republicans are the growth of prohibition and the as Hill of Connecticut, Gillett and Gardner of disintegration of Nationalism within the Massachusetts, Cannon, Mann, and McKin- Republican party. The questions of Socialley from Illinois ; and of such Democrats as ism, woman suffrage and the use which Speaker Clark from Missouri, and Represent- the women have made of their growing atives Sherley of Kentucky, Kitchin of North power to influence Presidential elections, Carolina, Moon of Tennessee, and Glass of the attitude of the labor vote and the soVirginia.

called hyphen vote, are also features of Certain defeats should also be chronicled. importance. With regard to these last two One is that of Representative Bennet, of New factors, if the State elections show anything, York, Republican, whose unwarranted attack they show that there has been no marked on Frederic C. Howe, Immigration Com- labor or hyphen solidarity, certainly not to missioner at the port of New York, reacted the degree which had been forecast before to the Congressman's political injury. Rep- November 7. resentatives Frank Buchanan and Clyde H. Tavenner, of Illinois, Democrats, were HOW THE STATES VOTED also defeated, we are glad to say.

Mr. Coming from generalities to particulars, it Buchanan had attempted to unite in a com- is necessary to consider the States both in mon cause his labor constituency and pro- groups and as individual units. The States fessional pro-Germans. Mr. Tavenner has which lend themselves most easily to classifibeen known as the extremest sort of a “ little cation in a group are those which demonnavy” man. Another notable pacifist, Warren strated their inability to think Nationally, which Worth Bailey, Democrat, of Pennsylvania, has were ready to sacrifice National candidates also lost his seat. Mr. Bailey, an ardent sup- and policies to local quarrels. porter of William J. Bryan, has been regarded At the head of this group stands comfortas Mr. Bryan's spokesman in Congress. able Kansas, electing a Republican Governor by

The vote of the National Guardsmen now a large majority and voting for a Democratic on the Mexican border will determine the President, apparently chiefly from a failure Congressional contests in two Pennsylvania 'to understand the chief issues of the elec

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