the reply of a Mexican woman to the question, "Does it rain here in summer as much as it does in winter?" The reply was:

"No hay reglas fijas, señor." (There are no fixed rules.)

There are no fixed rules about anything in Mexico.

To make the lot of the investigator harder, if it be known that he intends to publish the result of his researches, he will be attended during his stay in the land of Carranza by agents of the Government and agents of the opposition, who vie with each other for the privilege of giving him their own particular explanation of everything he sees. In addition, spies of the various factions—or juntas, as they love to call them in Mexico-are constantly hovering in his wake. It makes the investigator feel exactly as if he were a promising freshman and the college fraternity rushing season were in full swing.

His difficulties are increased by the fact that in no country of like size in the world is there less tabulated and collated information than in Mexico. Many persons can be found who will gladly supply pages of statistics on any subject desired if given barely time enough to put them on paper. But reasonably trustworthy business information on such important and familiar subjects as mining, cattle-raising, or the ownership of land is almost impossible to find. This is partly due to the inevitable disorder of six years of revolution; it is much more due to inherent traits in Mexican character directly antipodal to German precision, willingness to take pains, and love of method.

Even the foreigners in Mexico seem to be contaminated with the native unreliability, and on political events those who have been in the country for some length of time have lost much of their perspective.

Thus the rare man in Mexico who really wants to learn the truth and who has no ax to grind and no preconceived political opinions to prove must rely mainly on personal observation and experience, on the personal observation and experience of those informants who, in his judgment, are the least unreliable among a host of persons willing to misinform him, and on the use of such few facts so well established that they are undisputed even in Mexico.

It is now thirteen months since President Wilson recognized Venustiano Carranza as the titular head of the de facto Government of Mexico. Before that Carranza was in the

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public eye for two years and a half. It is now not unfair, it seems, to check up Carranza's accomplishments with his promises, to weigh his record, and ask ourselves what it augurs for the future.

In general, the debit side of the First Chief's slate is better known than the credit side.

The public knows that Mexico is still chaotic, that brigandage still flourishes, that Villa, Zapata, and Felix Diaz still form serious menaces to the security of the de facto Government. The public has heard of the epidemic of typhus, and knows something about the worn-out state of the railways and the exhausted condition of the nation's finances.

The exact extent of any of these evils cannot be stated by any one, because the extent of them is constantly fluctuating. At one time during my stay in Mexico it was possible to cross the Isthmus of Tehuantepec by rail, at another time it was not. At one time it was possible to make the railway journey from Mexico City to Oaxaca, the capital of the State of the same name, but later the road was cut by revolutionists—that is, enemies of Carranza. (The Carranzistas still call themselves revolutionists, although their enemies seem to have a better right to the appellation in fact, but in Mexico nowadays your own side is always "revolutionary" and your enemy's course is always "reactionary.")

Before undertaking any journey in Mexico to-day you must get the very latest report as to the activity of bandits in the zone through which you purpose traveling. If bandits have just attacked a train on the line which you intend to take, it is quite safe; for, like lightning, bandits never strike twice in succession in the same place. For instance, the day before I left Vera Cruz for Mexico City Zapatistas had blown up the through train between the same points and killed several people, wherefore on the following day travel was deemed to be entirely safe, and persons who had been waiting about Vera Cruz for weeks considered that day a favorable occasion to depart.

The public attitude toward such affairs is curious. The Mexicans have a sort of special code for judging such things, backed, like international law, only by the force of public opinion. So long as the activities of bandits are confined to interference with military movements and to attacks on Government officials and Government troops, the

public is inclined to wish them well, for in Mexico the majority of the people are always against whatever Government is in power. But on the particular occasion just referred to the chief bomber of the bandits carelessly blew up a day coach and killed several women, instead of destroying the car carrying the military guard which attends every train in Mexico to-day. The result was that people condemned the Zapatistas fervently and the Morelos chieftain lost many civilian adherents by that misplay.

No doubt the Zapatistas have little hope of gaining control of any considerable part of the Republic, although the Villistas probably and the Felicistas (followers of Felix Diaz) certainly are more ambitious. But the majority of such acts of lawlessness have behind them principally-when robbery is not intended-the motive to discredit the Government.

Certainly in this purpose Zapata is fairly successful. Certainly it is discreditable to Carranza that to-day, when his recognized rule has extended more than a year, it is unsafe for residents of Mexico City to visit most suburbs twenty miles from the capital, and to visit some at the very gates of the city. While I was in the capital there were skirmishes between Government soldiers and bandits within ten miles of the national palace, and one night the " "Zaps were with difficulty prevented from seizing and holding the bull ring, which they considered an admirable base for further raids, and which is within the city limits and less than two miles from the home of the First Chief, in the very center of the town. And for four days there was a pitched battle between Government soldiers and followers of the ubiquitous and perennial pest, Zapata, at Xochimilco, the site of the city's water works. Every few weeks, in fact, the citizens of Mexico City arise in the morning to find the water pipes empty and bathing impossible. Then they remark, wearily, "Well, the Zaps are at it again."

As to starvation and disease, the truth lies about half-way between the optimistic bulletins of Carranza's highly developed system of press agencies and the gloomy reports of enemies of the Government. The epidemic of typhus, or "tifo," as they call it in Mexico, is very serious. Always worst in the winter, it promises soon to be even more a matter of public concern than it was last winter, when thousands of persons died of it. When I left Mexico City, about a hundred new cases

were being reported daily in Mexico City alone, and some other cities, including Zacatecas and Aguas Calientes, were reported to be more seriously afflicted. The half-starved and the starving elements in the population are easy preys to the disease, and the efforts at sanitation taken by the Government have not been very effective.

The most pathetic starvation is not visible. The miserable, ragged, diseased beggars who arouse the pity of tourists are nothing new in Mexico. Members of the lowest class in Mexican society, moreover, do not suffer so much as might be supposed, because for them there is always begging or enlistment in the army as a last resort. The most genuine and the most pathetic suffering in Mexico to-day is among the lower middle class. Young women in business who were getting salaries of ninety pesos a month when two pesos meant a dollar are at the end of their rope with two hundred pesos a month when a dollar means fifty pesos. Clerks, railway men, salaried people generally, are hard hit. The men of this class do not often care to join the army and the women cannot Many of them are too proud to beg. They are the people who are the greatest sufferers in Mexico.

A trying aspect of this starvation is that the people are starving in the midst of plenty. This year the crops have been unusually bountiful, but the prices of food are enormous. A keg holding one hundred kilos of beans costs 420 pesos. Milk is two or three pesos a quart. A dish of ham and eggs in a third-rate restaurant costs five or six pesos. These prices are nothing for those who are paid in real money, but, of course, ninety-five per cent of the salaries in the country are paid in Carranza paper. There are two kinds of this paper in issue at present. The latest issue, which is called infalsificables (uncounterfeitable), is circulated at the rate of fifty pesos for one American dollar, but the rate is increasing daily, and within a week a dollar may be worth seventy-five pesos. The other money, known as the Vera Cruz issue, is only one-tenth as valuable—that is to say, with an American dollar you can buy five hundred pesos in this paper. It is something of a shock to the newcomer to give a beggar five pesos and then realize that he has given him only a cent. Thanks to this grotesque monetary situation, living in Mexico was absurdly cheap for a while for any one whose salary was paid in foreign cur

rency. For instance, not long ago one could live for four days at the best hotel in Mexico for one dollar gold, and the thirty-six-hour trip from Mexico City to Laredo cost less than three dollars, including Pullman. Many amusing stories are told as the result of this anomalous state of affairs. An American famous for his chronic impecuniosity, by reason of this condition remained behind in Mexico City, while his friends went to Vera Cruz on some gala occasion. But when the penniless American turned up in Vera Cruz a day or two later and his astonished friends asked him the explanation he remarked, "Oh, it's very simple; I just bought seventy-five cents' worth of hundred-dollar bills and came on down." To-day, however, the prices at all stores are on a gold basis, which makes living still more difficult for the natives.

Another reason why there is starvation in a year of abundant crops is that the facilities for transferring the grain from one part of the country to another are very inadequate. In this respect Mexico is like Russia a year ago, when people were suffering in Petrograd and Moscow from a scarcity of sugar and flour caused by a lack of trains to bring up the abundant stores of these commodities from southern Russia. In fact, in many ways a traveler who was in Russia a year ago is reminded of that country if he visits Mexico to-day. Russia is ruled by a Government admittedly autocratic; Mexico, by a Government boastfully revolutionary. Yet in point of the evils from which both nations suffer, there are some surprising resemblances. both countries the majority of the people are illiterate. In both countries the only form of government that has been successful is a dictatorship or an oligarchy. In both countries the rich are intemperately rich and the poor are miserably poor. In both countries are the the same unnecessary and petty, but in the mass serious, annoyances, such as the necessity of standing in line for hours to buy a railway ticket unless one has the necessary influence to get in by the back door. Finally, both countries, Russia in a lesser and Mexico in a greater degree, suffer from governmental inefficiency and the taint of corruption which runs from the smallest officials to the highest.

In

So much for the dark side of Carranza's Government. The bright side is brighter than the general public knows. In the first place, the very fact that Carranza has been able to call himself the recognized head of Mexico for more than a year is no small accomplishment

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in itself. Since Huerta, none of the five rulers of Mexico has stayed in the saddle as long as Carranza. For thirteen months his immediate downfall has been predicted and is being predicted as this issue of The Outlook goes to press; but the slow, quiet, somewhat overdignified Carranza is still called First Chief.

In the second place, Carranza has pretty well pacified a good deal of the country, and the pacification of Mexico would be no easy task for any one. Men who left their cornhoeing to adopt the more lucrative, more picturesque, and more exciting calling of bandit are not willingly going back to hoeing corn. Moreover, there are particular reasons in Mexico why the path of the bandit is easy. The first reason is the already-mentioned disposition of the Mexican people to look favorably on all enemies of the Government; the second reason is that it is never difficult for a Mexican bandit to get ammunition from the United States. The charge of Mexicans that the United States laws against filibustering are not rigidly enforced has more truth in it than official Americans care to admit. this connection Mr. Candido Aguilar, Secretary of Foreign Relations, said to me:

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to

"The bandits in the field against Carranza seem to have plenty of ammunition, and as they could get it from nowhere but the United States the inference is plain that unscrupulous American interests are helping strengthen the arm of the lawless in Mexico. It is inconsistent that they should do this privately and then publicly attack Carranza for not more speedily restoring order."

In the way of rebuilding Mexico Carranza has done more than is generally known. One of the most important reforms already effected is the abolition of the old jefes politicos, who were virtually czars appointed by the President to rule provincial districts, and the substitution of a form of self-government for towns. Municipal elections have recently been held, and to-day wherever Carranza's power is recognized in Mexico towns are governed by their own elected mayors and municipal councils. Of course these recent elections were farcical, as elections have always been in Mexico; still, on the whole, the new form of local government has fewer evils than the old. The judicial system of the country has been reorganized and Federal judges appointed for every State, and a national commission has been created for the study of agricultural problems, with sub-committees in each State. The abuses emanating from

what was formerly a deeply intrenched and mainly corrupt ecclesiastical hierarchy have been largely eliminated. On the other hand, the Constitutionalists themselves have sometimes abused their own power in curbing the Church. But this is in considerable degree the swing of the pendulum to the opposite extreme, something which happens in every revolution. On the whole, Carranza's policy towards the Church has been just and well intended. There have been some cases, no doubt, although I cannot personally vouch for them, of atrocities against the persons of priests and nuns committed by Constitutionalists. No civilized man would defend such acts. On the other hand, under the Constitution of the nation convents, monasteries, nunneries, and all religious orders have been illegal in Mexico since 1859, and have existed in disregard of the law.

The best thing Carranza has done has been the foundation of schools. Diaz did a good deal for Mexico, but, while he developed the country's material resources, he neglected the development of its human resources. But Carranza has given his particular attention to the educational programme, and to help him he has had the advice of two of the ablest men in Mexico, Señor Felix Palavicini, recently Secretary of Public Instruction, and Señor Andres Osuna, Director of Public Instruction, who will probably succeed to the position left empty by Palavicini. In the State of Yucatan alone more than one thousand schools have been founded.

Speaking of the work of reconstruction, General Pablo Gonzales said to me :

"We may agree that this work has been somewhat disconnected and even violent, but nothing else could be expected of the beginnings of a new government which has to solve different problems as they present themselves, and which at the same time has to rule over those who are living in peace and to keep up the military campaigns against those who are fighting it."

"What are the principal problems of reconstruction still to be solved ?" I asked General Gonzales.

"As the Constitutionalist Government has squarely faced all the needs of the nation," he said, "all the problems have been studied and solved, and we lack only certain details in order to have them completely solved. There is a certain lack of harmony in the different opinions in regard to the land question, but undoubtedly some kind of agree

ment will be reached, and we shall then have the definite pattern legally adopted to solve all the details of the land question. We still have the financial problem. But, fortunately, the great natural resources of Mexico and the great improvement that will surely come as the country gets reorganized will be strong factors for the proper solution of this problem."

Yes, indeed, Mexico still has the financial problem. It is that problem principally which is likely to swamp the Carranza Government.

With money efficiently used, bandits can be subdued or bought over, disease can be checked, starvation can be stopped, railways and factories can be rebuilt. Give Carranza two hundred million dollars in gold, and he can probably put the country in order and gradually establish the Government on a civil and constitutional basis. The only Government that Mexico can establish for itself is a dictatorship, and Carranza appears to me about as well qualified to be dictator as any one in view in Mexico to day.

Carranza is not brilliant, he is not spectacular, but he is far from stupid. He has the slow, "plugging" type of mind. Any one who to-day looks at the Plan of Guadalupe must admit that Carranza has advanced a long way toward the fulfillment of the tasks which he set for himself at the beginning of the revolution.

Carranza's best assets are his dogged determination and confidence in himself and his ability to handle men according to his own peculiar way. The subordinates who have opposed him have been gradually but surely eliminated. For instance, some months ago one of Carranza's generals confiscated a mansion in Mexico City. The First Chief sent him a written order to vacate it. The officer's reply was a string of profane and obscene insults written on the back of the order, which was returned to Carranza. The First Chief apparently did nothing to punish this insubordination. He even allowed the order, with the insulting reply uppermost, to remain on his desk where his visitors could see it and gain something of an idea of the trials with which the First Chief was faced. But to-day that general has gone, and no one can tell you his whereabouts.

The men around Carranza are an interesting lot. They fall into two totally dissimilar groups. As members of his Cabinet and as his immediate advisers he has gathered about him men of surprising polish, suavity, intelli