Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled TimeOxford University Press, 2007年1月4日 - 368 頁 With Beyond Rationality, Kenneth R. Hammond, one of the most respected and experienced experts in judgment and decision-making, sums up his life's work and persuasively argues that decisions should be based on balance and pragmatism rather than rigid ideologies. Hammond has long focused on the dichotomy between theories of correspondence, whereby arguments correspond with reality, and coherence, whereby arguments strive to be internally consistent. He has persistently proposed a middle approach that draws from both of these modes of thought and so avoids the blunders of either extreme. In this volume, Hammond shows how particular ways of thinking that are common in the political process have led to the mistaken judgments that created our current political crisis. He illustrates this argument by analyzing penetrating case studies emphasizing the political consequences that arise when decision makers consciously or unconsciously ignore their adversaries' particular mode of thought. These analyses range from why Kennedy and Khruschev misunderstood each other to why Colin Powell erred in his judgments over the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. For anyone concerned about the current state of politics in the U.S. and where it will lead us, Beyond Rationality is required reading. |
搜尋書籍內容
第 1 到 5 筆結果,共 49 筆
第 xi 頁
... wrong sometimes, without a clue as to why it is one or the other. And when that happens, it's hard to know where the trouble lies. Our inherent limitations? Simply faulty knowledge? Our emotions or passions? Perhaps all of these. But ...
... wrong sometimes, without a clue as to why it is one or the other. And when that happens, it's hard to know where the trouble lies. Our inherent limitations? Simply faulty knowledge? Our emotions or passions? Perhaps all of these. But ...
第 xviii 頁
... wrong criterion to apply to the justification of a coherence-based conclusion; the authors of the Harvard report knew that there were no new empirical facts available before they began their work. So they sought coherence among the ...
... wrong criterion to apply to the justification of a coherence-based conclusion; the authors of the Harvard report knew that there were no new empirical facts available before they began their work. So they sought coherence among the ...
第 4 頁
... that science—and this book—challenges; the view taken here is that Berlin's folk belief is exactly wrong, and this book explains why. Popular Nomination of the Wise When we don't quite understand 4 THE NEW SEARCH FOR WISDOM.
... that science—and this book—challenges; the view taken here is that Berlin's folk belief is exactly wrong, and this book explains why. Popular Nomination of the Wise When we don't quite understand 4 THE NEW SEARCH FOR WISDOM.
第 10 頁
... wrong boils down to a complaint about false alarms.” He then places false alarms in the context of fire alarms: “Only if false alarms become an inordinate proportion of all fire alarms do we feel that something is wrong.” 10 THE NEW ...
... wrong boils down to a complaint about false alarms.” He then places false alarms in the context of fire alarms: “Only if false alarms become an inordinate proportion of all fire alarms do we feel that something is wrong.” 10 THE NEW ...
第 11 頁
... wrong.” But, he notes, as few have, “A very low frequency of false alarms proves that too many homeowners are being too cautious, waiting too long to call the fire department, and consequently losing their homes.”6 Diamond extends this ...
... wrong.” But, he notes, as few have, “A very low frequency of false alarms proves that too many homeowners are being too cautious, waiting too long to call the fire department, and consequently losing their homes.”6 Diamond extends this ...
內容
Strategies of Human Judgment | 27 |
Tactics of Human Judgment | 121 |
Themes Guiding Research | 197 |
Looking Backward | 243 |
Notes | 297 |
Bibliography | 319 |
Index | 321 |
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al-Qaeda analytical cognition answer Atul Gawande behavior believe bounded rationality Brunswik Cass Sunstein cognitive activity cognitive continuum cognitive processes coherence competence coherence strategy Colin Powell common sense concept correspondence competence correspondence strategy critical Daniel Kahneman demand described ecological economists Egon Brunswik empirical environment example explain fact feedback Gerd Gigerenzer Gigerenzer and Todd Hammond Holmes human judgment Ibid idea important inferences intelligence intentions intuition and analysis Iraq irreducible uncertainty Isaiah Berlin Jared Diamond judg judgment and decision Judgment and Social Justice Kahneman Kennedy Kenneth Khrushchev Lewis’s logic Manhattan Project mathematical ment method military multiple fallible indicators natural Oliver Wendell Holmes one’s organization Oxford University Press person Powell Powell’s preemptive war president problem psychologists question reader reason result Saddam Hussein Scalia Simon Social Policy society Sunstein tactics task terrorist theme theory thought tion wisdom wrong York