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and has set to work to build up customs er to administer the state or to rebarriers on every side against the terri- ward political friends. Therefore the tories with which it once traded freely rule is to tax everybody and everyThis has injured the present Austria thing, but especially the foreigner. The most, and has indeed reduced her state export duty on Rumanian oil is a typifinance almost to extremities by com- cal case; for, if it hits directly the forpelling her to pay vast sums for wheat eign capital invested in this industry, and coal. But before long the selfish it also injures a source of local wealth, Succession States found that, in in- and gives a subsidy to other states juring Austria, they were losing their which supply oil. The idea of a fixed customers and injuring themselves; so, export tax, laid on regardless of worldby the natural force of circumstances, prices and falling-values, is one which we shall in due course see a change of must have originated in a lunatic asypolicy for which Austria, Hungary, and lum. In other places we discover a coneven Czechoslovakia are almost ripe. sortium, or government trading-ma

But the big idea of Dr. Benes, the chine, which supplies posts for political Foreign Minister of Czechoslovakia, to adherents, usually ignorant of trade create the United States of Central Eu- needs and practices; and it need scarcerope by a series of tariff agreements be- ly be said that it trades badly, and imtween half a dozen states in this part of poses on the produce of the country the world, may take long to be carried quite needless losses, often failing to out; for in some quarters the tendency find markets at all. In short, there is is still to pile on duties, chiefly in order every grade of incompetence to be to collect money, but also to protect found as we pursue our inquiry; while, home industries.

of course, the immense loss and damage The broad fact remains that interna- of the war has thrown numerous states tional trade is grievously hampered, into a disorganized condition and comand that it should be our object to free munications have particularly suffered. it from its fetters, both for our own Another change, which we in Engsakes and for the sake of these small land, at all events, watch with some countries which are busy strangling anxiety, is the agrarian policy, which each other to no possible benefit for has taken the form, in several states, of themselves. I believe that the quickest distributing the land among the peasand most drastic cure for the evils of Eu- ants. It may have been, and it was in rope, and failing currency and exchange some cases, a political necessity, and reform, would be a year of completely may have prevented an agrarian revofree trade, with no tariffs at all, inward lution; but the effect which it will have or outward; but one must confess that upon the export of cereals is of considthe nations concerned, not to speak of erable interest to the world. The great others, have not yet reached such a state estates are being broken up and reof grace as to accept a remedy of so placed by small holdings, which usually novel and so violent a kind. The ten- run from some three acres in Alpine dencies, on the whole, are the other regions up to twenty acres in average way. Even on the international rivers, arable land, rising again to six hundred the smaller riverain states are most ten- acres at most for the old proprietors. acious of what they call their rights, and There is no universal scale, nor even the claim powers which the régime of inter- same scale in all the provinces of each national law does not allow them. separate country; but the general effect

All governments want money, wheth- is to replace large landed properties by

small ones, with various scales of com- denounced to the workers of Europe by pensation - all very low - to the for- many missions to Russia composed of mer landlords. Most of these laws were men of extreme views. With few

exceppassed in the first flush of revolutionary tions these men have confessed thementhusiasm after the war. In some selves horror-stricken by the conditions cases they have been widely applied, in they have found; and though Commusome partially, and in others scarcely nism is not everywhere dead in Europe, at all. But all the laws stand, and it is there has been a powerful reaction the general belief that the exportable against the disruptive theories of a few surplus of cereals, and especially of years ago. The affair really came to a wheat, will diminish with a generalized head in the Bolshevist invasion of Popeasant-proprietorship. The tendency land; and if the failure of that attack of the small holder is to grow patchy did not convince Lenin and his dupes crops, primarily for his own food and of the futility of their theories, it conthat of his family; and there will not be veyed to them, at all events, a sense of the capital necessary for rich manuring their weakness against even partially for providing modern agricultural ma- trained troops; and since then Bolshechinery, or for purchasing high-class vism has been steadily losing ground in stock. On the other hand, a plurality of countries other than Russia. There are landowners means more stable political some communistic centres in Europe conditions, and may lead, some hope, where outbreaks of this disease may to increased production, owing to the recur, but I do not know the country in personal interest of each small farmer Europe which has any serious fear now in his land.

that its people can be stampeded by the Some attempts have been made by fanatics of Moscow. The experiences of the proletariat, notably in North Italy, Berlin and Munich, Vienna and Budato seize factories and to exploit them pest, have sufficed. The country has for the exclusive benefit of the workers. one hold over the towns: it can always These attempts have failed, because starve them. the new men in possession found them- The disruption of four great historic selves quite incapable of managing the empires, and the substitution for them administrative part of the work, the of various forms of democratic rule, contracts, and the sales. They, there have naturally caused immense disturbfore, in many cases, invited the old pro- ance in the political atmosphere, and prietors and managers to return, while the political weather is most uncertain. the bourgeois parties created the fas- Bulgaria keeps her dynasty, and Auscisti in Italy, and took other measures tria thinks more of joining Germany to defend themselves.

than of recalling the Hapsburgs; but In general, the tyranny, the excesses, Hungary is monarchical, and would and the fearful results of the Russian have a king to-morrow if she dared; Revolution, have sunk deeply into the while a large and influential part of the minds of the workers in Europe. If Bol- German population remains in princishevism had been specially designed to ple monarchical, and desires to revert expose the futility and uneconomic ab- to that form of government. The Gersurdity of the theories of Karl Marx, it man Empire acquired its former great could not have more appropriately car- position under a kaiser, and every Gerried out its mission than it has done man is regretful of the past. during the last four years. The error, The present government of Dr. Wirth and the tragedy of the error, have been and the personality of this honest Swabian, are very highly esteemed by national pride, which revolts against the Allied and Associated diplomatic the peace and the surrender to the Albodies in Berlin. Chancellor Wirth is lied ultimatum of last May. But it endeavoring to do his duty by the seems to be the prescriptive right of Treaty of Versailles, as well as by his this party to make colossal blunders, own people. But he has to call upon and the assassination of Erzberger, the German people to double the state almost condoned as it was by many revenue in order to pay reparations; Opposition newspapers, is the last on and though I am convinced that he can the list. do it if he meets with proper support, No one can safely predict the future politics in Germany are very bitter, and of German politics, which depend the parties of reaction stick at nothing. on events that cannot be foreseen; but All the old reactionary forces are still in that the character of the new Chanexistence. The Army, the Church, and cellor and the policy of his Government the Universities combine with the land offer the best ascertainable chance for lords and the great industrial magnates the gradual pacification, not only of to make things difficult for a govern- Germany, but of Europe, will not be ment which has no great prestige for disputed by the closest observers of want of past successes, and has the in- European politics. vidious task of sending the hat round for the Allies. The mass of the Left, and For the reasons stated in the earlier even some of the intermediate parties, part of this article, I do not think that have at present rallied to the Chan- very much can be expected from the cellor's support; and if street demon- meeting at Washington in the way of strations count for much, the majority reduction of land forces. With respect of the voters are for him. The Allies to navies it is different, because there have abolished the Rhine customs as a are only three great navies that count, tribute to him; but, owing to the oppo- and none of these is specially concerned sition of France, have not withdrawn in the enforcement of the terms of peace from Düsseldorf, Ruhrort, and Duis- upon our late enemies, who have no naburg, as Dr. Wirth has very earnestly vies at all. It is, therefore, merely a quespleaded that they should.

tion of agreeing to a mutual stand-still The Right parties in Germany com- in naval armaments; and this question, plain that the Government lacks au- it would seem, should present no insupthority, cannot represent the country erable difficulties. with the old distinction, and is subser- But I cannot think that such an imvient to the Allies. Most of the notable portant conference will break up withleaders of the Imperialist party are get- out suggesting a remedy for the ills ting on in years, and they probably feel which I have briefly described. Armathat time is on the side of German Re- ments are symptoms of a political dispublicanism. In a few years most of ease, but are not the disease itself. The the old officers will have settled down real diseases of the world are unstable to new occupations and may retain lit- exchanges, unsound currencies, hamtle more than a sentimental attach- pered trade, and the false nationalism ment to Kaiserism. The Right probably which shuns obligatory arbitration. feel that they cannot afford to wait, and Cure these diseases and armaments they count, with some reason, upon the cure themselves.




EVERY civilized man wants peace. but will only reduce

but will only reduce army and navy exBut peace has its price, payable in two penses; which, as one close thinker reinstallments. The first installment is marked, 'will bring disarmament about disarmament. The second consists of as fast as a cheapening of automobiles all the consequences, political, econo- will abolish transportation.' Many formic, religious, and racial, which must eign observers no longer believe that flow from the laying down of arms. even such a reduction of costs is the Nine tax-payers out of ten sigh for the primary aim. They see America striv. privilege of paying the first installment ing to force Japan's hand by compelling at once. But are they willing to pay the her to define her Asiatic policies under balance of the bill?

the pretext of a peace move. LieutenThis is the world's gravest question ant-General Sato advises the Japanese to-day. It must be faced and answered Government to send no men of the first before the close of the Washington Con- rank to the Conference, “but only those ference. Thus far it has been evaded. who are fluent in foreign languages, and Most people, who are always looking sociable.' For, in common with some for a panacea, dream that disarmament French critics, he thinks the whole afalone will bring the Golden Age. Oth- fair will dwindle to a string of brilliant ers, more canny, admit that the move dinners and press agent hurrahs. Bemay involve some unpleasant changes, hind their caustic doubts lie many hard but they belittle these. Only a few facts too jauntily overlooked by most thousand bankers, international trad- peace-lovers. The longer we shut our ers, and political specialists foresee eyes to them, the longer we must wait some of the startling transformations for world peace. that must ensue. And nobody knows The Conference faces six obstacles all the impending upheavals.

of the first magnitude — and heaven It is these certainties and uncertain- knows how many lesser hindrances. By ties that cause well-informed men, who all odds the greatest is the chaos in have no interest in bolstering up mili- China. Next ranks the chaos in Russia, tarism, to doubt the wisdom, as well as coupled with Russia's absence from the the possibility, of quick disarmament. arms parley. The third is a profound They all know that the Conference dilemma in Japan's national policy; the will make no effort to disarm the world, fourth a similar one in our own, and

both dilemmas aggravated by the les1 The phraseology of this paper is not intend.

sons of the World War. The fifth is the ed as a reflection upon the recent statement of Secretary Hughes that the subject of the forth

still unbroken power of the militarist coming Conference is to be limitation of arma- party in Japan. And the sixth is the ments rather than disarmament. — THE EDITOR. sheer physical impossibility of devising

a disarmament programme that will and cotton. There too swarm some affect equally or equitably all partici- four hundred million unappeased conpants. Probably no one or two of these sumers of manufactured goods, a multiobstacles would suffice to thwart the tude greater than the combined popuConference. The menace lies in all six lations of Western Europe, North working in conjunction and reinforced America, and Australia, with Japan by a host of lesser difficulties, economic, thrown in for good measure. political, and social, the whole tangle China and Siberia are richer in ecoinvolving billions of human beings, bil- nomic resources and in man-power than lions in money, a hundred theories, and all these lands. Beside them, all the a hundred aspirations and prejudices of rest of the Pacific area is rather insigrace and creed.

nificant. They are the two problems Is not the task too great for the mind of the Pacific. But neither China nor of man? Is it not one which only a Siberia can be reckoned with at the politician would rush at hopefully? Conference. Neither will be truly presWhether we think so or not, one thing ent there. Neither will be able to preis pretty clear: the organization and sent or to defend its rights and policies. the membership of the Conference be- And there is not the remotest chance tray an amazing neglect of the inmost that either will like the decisions of nature of the Pacific problems. To real- the foreigners. ize this, one need only recall the follow- Here, then, is the comedy, and here ing facts.

the stuff of which tragedies are woven. The invitation to the Conference Briton, Yankee, and Japanese meet to made clear that, until the nations of the usher in world peace. They dare not Pacific reached some understanding as discuss laying down arms until each to their rights and policies in that area, knows what the other two are planning it would be vain to move for disarma- to do with the Far East. What each ment. The stakes are too huge, the can there do depends in the long run conflict of interests too acute, the dis- upon

the wishes of the Chinese and Siparity of ethical and political codes too berians, unless these peoples are to be gross. This view was promptly accepted overawed by force. If thus bullied, by almost every statesman at home and Asia will see no disarmament, nor can abroad. It is axiomatic, in spite of the America. If bullying ceases, China and sentimentalists and ignoramuses who Siberia will automatically settle their say that wars are caused by talking own destinies; for they will then have war, that the way to disarm is to dis- the freedom to do so, as well as the arm, and that America must lead the desire. world in idealism whatever that Thus the Washington Conference may mean. Let us see how President must choose either to disarm and leave Harding applied this statesman-like Asia to the Asiatics, or else to run Asia principle.

and maintain immense fleets. The first All major problems of the Pacific, alternative wrecks the policy of every save that of Asiatic emigration, centre non-Asiatic power. The second makes in China and Siberia. There lie, still the Conference futile. Lacking the barely scratched, the world's vastest moral courage to solve this dilemma, treasuries of raw materials, the greatest the delegates may dodge the problem forests on earth, the hugest coal-fields, of disarmament and confine themselves stupendous iron-deposits, millions of to the task of trimming budgets. But acres that some day must yield wheat even this develops painful difficulties.

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