Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled TimeOxford University Press, 2007年1月4日 - 368 頁 With Beyond Rationality, Kenneth R. Hammond, one of the most respected and experienced experts in judgment and decision-making, sums up his life's work and persuasively argues that decisions should be based on balance and pragmatism rather than rigid ideologies. Hammond has long focused on the dichotomy between theories of correspondence, whereby arguments correspond with reality, and coherence, whereby arguments strive to be internally consistent. He has persistently proposed a middle approach that draws from both of these modes of thought and so avoids the blunders of either extreme. In this volume, Hammond shows how particular ways of thinking that are common in the political process have led to the mistaken judgments that created our current political crisis. He illustrates this argument by analyzing penetrating case studies emphasizing the political consequences that arise when decision makers consciously or unconsciously ignore their adversaries' particular mode of thought. These analyses range from why Kennedy and Khruschev misunderstood each other to why Colin Powell erred in his judgments over the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. For anyone concerned about the current state of politics in the U.S. and where it will lead us, Beyond Rationality is required reading. |
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... twentyfirst century. I need not belabor the importance of the topic. Our previous mistakes (such as wars and pollution) have laid ruin to too much of the planet, and now it has become evident that our mistakes could be irrevocable: it ...
... twentyfirst century. I need not belabor the importance of the topic. Our previous mistakes (such as wars and pollution) have laid ruin to too much of the planet, and now it has become evident that our mistakes could be irrevocable: it ...
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... twentyfirst century, there is no universal agreement on what it means to be rational. A proliferation of meanings makes it necessary for responsible authors to say exactly what they mean by rationality. Here is a current and important ...
... twentyfirst century, there is no universal agreement on what it means to be rational. A proliferation of meanings makes it necessary for responsible authors to say exactly what they mean by rationality. Here is a current and important ...
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... twentyfirst century will bring forward new and more sophisticated research to enlighten us about human judgment. Even better, that research will take us to the next step beyond rationality; it will enlighten us about wisdom, which is ...
... twentyfirst century will bring forward new and more sophisticated research to enlighten us about human judgment. Even better, that research will take us to the next step beyond rationality; it will enlighten us about wisdom, which is ...
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... century, psychologists, and researchers in many other disciplines, for the first time took empirically based steps to the study of human judgment. That meant progress might well occur. And it has. As I ... twentyfirst century. The views of.
... century, psychologists, and researchers in many other disciplines, for the first time took empirically based steps to the study of human judgment. That meant progress might well occur. And it has. As I ... twentyfirst century. The views of.
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... twentyfirst century. The views of these biologically oriented researchers will be of great interest, for they have ... century, why they do not satisfy us, and why the researchers of the twentyfirst century will turn to a more powerful ...
... twentyfirst century. The views of these biologically oriented researchers will be of great interest, for they have ... century, why they do not satisfy us, and why the researchers of the twentyfirst century will turn to a more powerful ...
內容
Strategies of Human Judgment | |
The Strategy of Seeking Correspondence Competence | |
The MisJudgments of Colin Powell | |
Trying to Be Rational | |
Seeking Empirical Accuracy the Hard | |
Seeking Rationality the Easy | |
Seeking Rationality the Hard | |
Embedded in an Uncertain World | |
Current Research Themes | |
The Authors Theme | |
Trying to Learn from History with Bernard Lewis and Jared | |
Toward Better Practices | |
Seekingand Failingto Learn about the Other | |
How the Drive for Coherence Brings Down Utopias | |
Tactics of Human Judgment | |
Continua | |
The Cognitive Continuum at the Supreme Court | |
Seeking Empirical Accuracy the Easy | |
Ineptitude and the Tools of | |
The New Search for Wisdom | |
Notes | |
Bibliography | |
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analytical cognition answer Atul Gawande behavior believe bounded rationality Brunswik Cass Sunstein chapter cognitive activity cognitive continuum cognitive processes coherence competence coherence strategy Colin Powell common sense concept correspondence competence correspondence strategy critical Daniel Kahneman data mining demand described Diamond economists Egon Brunswik empirical environment example explain fact false negatives feedback Gerd Gigerenzer Hammond Holmes human judgment Ibid idea important inferences intelligence intentions intuition and analysis Iraq irreducible uncertainty Isaiah Berlin Jared Diamond judgment and decision Judgment and Social Justice Kahneman Kennedy Kenneth Khrushchev Lewis’s logic Manhattan Project mathematical method military multiple fallible indicators natural Oliver Wendell Holmes one’s organization Oxford University Press person political Powell Powell’s president problem psychologists question reader reason result Saddam Hussein Scalia sexual selection Simon Social Policy society Sunstein tactics task terrorist theme theory twentyfirst century wisdom wrong York